The September slump may not be the last, but experts say there is still room for the crypto market to gather at the end of the year.
“There’s growing speculation that we’ve reached the top of this cycle, but I don’t think so,” said Shawn Dawson, head of research for the on-chain options platform. Decryption.
He believes that the second half of September could see increased volatility and short-term pain due to the historic seasonality of the month, driven primarily by the extension of the US fiscal year.
Bitcoin fell by about 1.29% from $116,245 to $114,770 from Saturday’s high. Co Ringecko The data will be displayed.
In the case of Ethereum, the pain could be from the Department of Finance. The Treasury could reduce the net asset value (comparing the company’s stock price with the asset’s stock price) from the market to less than one, and instead encourage them to sell the underlying assets and sell repurchased shares.
Dawson said the market could be “half-baked” via fourth quarter ups, citing supportive macro trends and options data.
Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts in 2025 are consistent with investors’ bullish positioning.
“The macros are getting very positive. The latest polymer data shows the odds of three rate reductions before the end of the year jumps from 22% to 49% in just two weeks,” Dawson said.
The odds for four rate cuts, or full percentage points, rose above 10%. This is usually a sudden shift in expectations in favor of risky assets such as crypto.
The consensus probability of market price outcomes suggests that “40% probability of Ethereum could exceed $5,000 at the end of the year, while 20% could exceed $6,000.
For Bitcoin, the market offers a 37% chance of over $125,000 at the same time. ”
Bitcoin and Ethereum rose nearly 6% and 4% respectively this month, opposing the historically bearish months of digital assets.