Argentine economist Alex Kruger says the digital currency is at a critical moment, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to around $98,000 (USD) this week. In his opinion, this rise has clear origins and is not caused by general euphoria, which opens up new challenges.
According to experts, progress is It happened since the news of Jerome Powell’s summons“This is primarily due to spot buyers on Coinbase.” Krueger noted that this can be observed in both adjusted Coinbase premiums and CVDs.
Coinbase metrics measure the difference in Bitcoin prices between that exchange and other platforms. Being a major regulated exchange in the US, positive values are typically associated with US institutional demand. CVD (cumulative volume delta) reflects whether aggressive buying or selling is predominant in the market.
The following graph shared by this economist shows the evolution of the price of Bitcoin over an hour against USDT, a stablecoin that maintains the price of the dollar. This is at the top, and below that you’ll see two versions of the Coinbase Premium indicator. raw (gross) and adjusted (adjusted).
version raw Price differences are directly reflected and are more volatile, but adjusted Smooth out those movements to identify more persistent trends. You can see that both versions change from negative earth (red) to positive earth (blue), increasing their strength. Shows increasing buying pressure on Coinbase.
“The Justice Department’s persecution of Mr. Powell has become an important litmus test for Bitcoin,” the analyst emphasized. “Ultimately, hedging the extreme risks of central bank profligacy is Bitcoin’s key long-term value proposition.”
In this sense, Krueger, trader and partner at macro and digital asset advisory firm Asgard, believed that “Bitcoin should have gone up on Monday, and it did, albeit with a slight delay.”
Just as CriptoNoticias reported, Jerome Powell, the president of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, reported on Sunday that the agency had received a subpoena from the Department of Justice. These concerns his testimony before the Senate in June. Announcement of large-scale renovation plan for government building. However, he said this was retaliation by the Trump administration for not lowering interest rates.
Bitcoin resistance risk
Krueger elaborated, “All crypto chat has been commenting daily for over a month about how bad Bitcoin is.” At the same time, he emphasized that “stock prices and raw materials are constantly rising.” From that perspective, it’s time to move on.
but, challenged traditional market views. “Fun fact: Stocks don’t just go up,” he said, contrary to popular belief. He specified that 40% of S&P 500 stocks will end in the red in 2025. That’s why, for Krueger, “perception is a shame.”
Krueger cautioned that the technical scenario for Bitcoin remains delicate. According to his analysis, the “main battleground for BTC” is the 50-week moving average. That level is currently located at $101,420, which could pose a resistance level.
Considering this panorama, Analysts predicted his strategy：“I would like to make a profit when the short selling position is eliminated.” The point is “a little over 100,000.” This area is consistent with what other on-chain analyzes predict if demand continues.
The Economist has more than 25 years of professional experience, including earlier in his career in the banking industry and the Argentine Ministry of Economy. Ten years ago he set out on his own and has been working as a full-time trader ever since. He entered the Bitcoin market in 2013 and has dedicated his time to the crypto ecosystem as an operator and advisor.
Technology level determines market direction
Bitcoin is currently trading below the base cost of the coin, which was last moved 6 to 12 months ago. Historically, if prices remain below that level, “the overall trend is down.”
Cryptocurrency analyst Dunn explained that unless that threshold is restored, “the risk of further decline remains high.” Its base cost is close to $100,000.
“If Bitcoin can recover to that level, the market structure will change,” Cryptodan said. He added that “that breakout typically signals a transition to an uptrend.”
Otherwise, he warned, “if we can’t overcome that, it will signal that the overall downward trend is still continuing.” In his view, “whether the market turns bullish depends on this single level.”
In addition to technical analysis, $100,000 acts as a psychological standard. That’s because the goal that ends the cycle is to get back to six digits. If realized, it could “strengthen the market mood” not only for technical reasons but also for emotional reasons.
That is why, at the moment, although Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery in 2026, a reactivation of the uptrend has not yet been confirmed. The market is keeping a close eye on this decisive level.