Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of Crypto Research at Standard Chartered, believes Bitcoin (BTC) is still not priced for an increase in indications of systemic risk, despite bolstering cases as hedges over the past few weeks.
In a client note on April 22, Kendrick warned that political pressure on the US Federal Reserve is driving stress in the bond market and could quickly ripple into the crypto market.
He pointed out that the 10-year term premium in the United States reached its highest level in 12 years. He said it reflects growing concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and in particular the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to Kendrick:
“The current threat to the Fed’s independence through Powell’s potential alternatives falls straight into the category of government-related risks. Bitcoin should begin to reflect this change soon.”
Bitcoin’s role as a hedge of crisis remains the same
Kendrick categorized Bitcoin as a hedge against two different types of systematic threats, including the private sector collapse, such as the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank’s disruption, and public sector reliability shocks, such as central bank interference and suspected sovereign debt.
Bitcoin is often exchanged like a risky asset under normal conditions, but Kendrick emphasized that its true function appears during macrostress events. He added that the latest premium spikes, an indicator of long-term inflation and rate risk, represent something like an environment in which Bitcoin historically reasserts the hedge narrative.
Kendrick also turned his attention to recent divergence. The premium period has skyrocketed in recent weeks, but Bitcoin prices have fallen below $100,000. He lags behind his focus on temporary investors in trade-related horrors, including tariffs in the technology sector that calmed Bitcoin’s response.
He wrote:
“BTC is slowing down the premium of the term as the focus temporarily falls on high-tech unperformance. But once the story returns to central bank reliability, Bitcoin returns to hedging capabilities.”
Bitcoin’s $2 million forecast remains unchanged
Despite the short-term volatility, Kendrick reaffirmed Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecast for Bitcoin. It’s $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.
He attributed this predicted macroeconomic pressure to improved structural access through spot ETFs and to the mature derivatives market.
Kendrick has previously modeled Bitcoin’s growth share with its optimized Gold-BTC portfolio as volatility declines. He argued that this would support an increase in BTC prices over time, especially if institutional access continues to expand under the current US administration.
According to Kendrick:
“This may be the most necessary thing ever.”
