Bitcoin could emerge as a major winner from the fierce trade dispute between the US and China.
BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that aggressive monetary policy responses, particularly undervaluing the currency, could lead to an increase in Bitcoin adoption.
In a post on April 8th on X, Hayes suggested that potentially undervaluing the Chinese Yuan (CNY) could spark renewed interest in Bitcoin as investors try to maintain value outside the traditional financial system.
He pointed to historical precedents and referenced similar patterns in 2013 and 2015, where currency devaluations coincided with a surge in Bitcoin adoption.
If history repeats itself, Hayes believes that 2025 could bring another capital inflow to the crypto, driven by Chinese investors trying to escape the risk of currency.
According to him:
“If it’s not the Fed, the PBOC gives us the Yozzy ingredient. The devaluation of CNY could result in the Chinese capital flowing to Bitcoin. It could work in 2013, 2015 and in 2025.”
To support Hayes’ outlook, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou highlighted the relationship between the original devaluation and demand for Bitcoin. He explained that China’s weakening CNY will respond to US tariffs, historically leading to an increase in capital inflows into Bitcoin.
Zhou said:
“China historically has tried to lower the yuan to counter tariffs whenever the yuan drops.
Essentially, this strategy will make China’s exports globally attractive by reducing costs, but it can also trigger capital flights and raise interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin.
US-China Trade War
A new trade war began after US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports and 34% higher on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China announced a 34% tariff on US imports on April 10th.
The US has since warned of further penalties (up to 50%) if negotiations stall. However, China has committed to maintaining its position.
Amid this uncertainty, Hayes suggested that global powers could begin to accumulate neutral assets like Bitcoin.
He believes that this shift could become a critical price catalyst, perhaps pushing Bitcoin’s value to $1 million in the long term.
