Bitcoin will be integrated just below its all-time high in mid-2025, navigating a turbulent year characterized by deep macros and geopolitical volatility. The year began with President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy, which rattled global trade ties and put pressure on risky assets. The US Treasury’s rise soon followed, and the conflicting inflationary pressures associated with tightening liquidity raised concerns about systemic vulnerability. Recently, the outbreak of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated fear across financial markets, prompting the transition to safe shelters like gold.
Amid this background, Bitcoin remains resilient, now consolidating beyond $100,000 after peaking at $112,000 at the beginning of the year. Some investors fear increased sales pressure due to global instability, while others believe that the current structure points to strength rather than weakness. According to top analyst Ted Pillows, there has been no fundamental change for BTC. His technical perspective argues that Bitcoin still reflects Gold’s long-term trajectory, bringing it to another breakout in the coming weeks.
With the risk of inflation still present and Fiat is concerned that capital will spin towards rare assets, many view Bitcoin as a macro hedge rather than a speculative play. A breakout above $112K can cause the next explosive movement.
Bitcoin volatility skyrockets as macro pressure accumulates
Bitcoin holds a company that exceeds $103,000 last week, despite failing to break the all-time high of $112,000. The rejection resulted in a sudden 6% revision as the bear attempted to force prices below the main demand zone. However, despite intense macro pressure and escalating geopolitical risks, Bitcoin remains structurally intact. The conflict between Israel and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, boosting safe assets like oil and gold while shaking stocks. Bitcoin, often considered digital gold, shows amazing strength amidst chaos.
The next week will be extremely important for BTC. As tensions worsen and traditional markets slide further, Bitcoin’s behavior tests its evolving role as a macro hedge. Investors are looking closely to see if capital continues to spin into BTC during risk-off conditions.
Ted Pillow remains optimistic. His technical analysis suggests that it has not been structurally altered for Bitcoin. According to his view, BTC closely tracks gold’s historic breakout patterns, meaning that digital assets are simply integrated in front of another leg. The long-term outlook for Pillow is that Bitcoin is targeting $160,000-$180,000 at the top of the cycle.
BTC integrates resistance below
Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,527 after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the $112,000 level earlier this month. The chart shows a clear rejection from its all-time high area, pushing prices back into the $103,600-109,300 range. This zone remains the main battlefield between the bull and the bear.
Currently, the 50-day moving average, which is around $103,426, serves as dynamic support, but the 200-day MA, which is close to $95,650, remains a broader trendline for long-term holders. Volume has decreased slightly during the recent decline. This may indicate that the sale lacks strong beliefs from market participants.
If BTC holds a level of $103,600 (if support supported by previous resistance is supported), it could set the stage for another push to $109,300. A breakout above that level could open the door for price discoveries above $112,000. However, if Bitcoin can’t hold the $103,600 area, there’s a risk of returning to the $97,000-$100,000 region where previous demand was tested in May.
Dall-E special images, TradingView chart
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