Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be entering a new stage in the cycle, pointing to a parabolic stage where technical indications and macroeconomic factors are possible. This upward trend could be extended until October 2025, driven by expanding technical indicators, international trade agreements and institutional adoption.
Bitcoin has demonstrated periodic behavior linked to halving. This occurs about every four years, reducing half the rewards miners receive to verify the transaction. This mechanism is designed to control the issuance of new Bitcoin, It usually causes a price acceleration phase known as the parabolic stage.
At these stages, prices experience significant rebounds in a short period of time, forming what analysts call “mast” or “horns” in technical patterns such as bullish flags.
Investor and analyst David Zanoni points out that All Bitcoin Cycles culminated in the parabolic phase. In the last two cycles, the period between the minimum and maximum price lasted exactly 1,064 days, with the first cycle extended for 1,148 days.
In the current cycle, which began halfway through April 2024, prices have yet to reach 1,064 days. This suggests there may be room for rebound until October 2025.
for that, The parabolic stage is characterized by a noticeable acceleration in price. “This is where the mast for bullish flag formation is formed,” Zanoni explains.
If the current cycle follows the pattern of the previous cycle, this phase can last for about six months. Starting in April 2025, extended until September or October. This period coincides with an average of 1,064 days of cycles prior to supporting the theory of sustained rebound.
The indicator shows an upward trend in formation
The technical graphics provide clear clues about the Bitcoin course. With the next week’s graphics, Prices showed an upward trend in April and May 2025.
Relative Force Index (RSI), an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movement; Beyond the level of 50, this marks the beginning of a new upward trend.. This movement is supported by another key indicator, the convergence layer of Mobile Socks (MACD).
The blue line on the MACD is about to pass through the red signal line, but the histogram bar can turn from red to rose and green. “When the blue line passes the red line and the bar turns green, this is a solid confirmation of the upward trend,” Zanoni says.
On top of that, Bitcoin appears to be overcoming the formation of a bullish flaga technical pattern that usually precedes a serious bull movement. The formation was merged between December 2024 and March 2025 after reaching a historical maximum of $109,000 in January.
“It could prove that the price retreated before it went up and exceeded it,” says Zanoni, who emphasized that breaking this threshold is an important step in confirming the parabolic stage.
On the monthly graph, the RSI is just below the overcomplete level of 70. Historically, RSI has reached an extreme level of over 90 before prices touch the maximum. In the previous cycle, double roofs formed with bearish divergence, reaching higher maximums, while RSI was lower maximums.
“Bitcoin can have a large margin to climb before reaching the maximum in this cycle,” Zanoni says. He makes it clear that there is no guarantee that past actions will be repeated, but.
Macroeconomic Factors: Commercial and Monetary Policy Agreements
Beyond technical indicators, Macroeconomic factors play a key role in Bitcoin rebound.
Recent trade agreements have dissipated some of the uncertainty that has affected global markets. For example, on May 8, 2025, the US and the UK announced an agreement to strengthen bilateral commercial ties.
However, the main focus is negotiations between the US and China, which marks an important milestone.
Commercial Wars Between Both Powers He climbed at tariffs that reached 145% on US Chinese products and 125% on Chinese US products.. Furthermore, China has imposed restrictions on the export of rare earths, which are essential to technology and military industry.
However, on May 12, 2025, both countries agreed to a temporary 90-day “fire.” Reduce customs duties to 30% and 10% respectivelyand establish a mechanism for continuing negotiations. The agreement, reported by Cryptootics, is being received as a positive catalyst for the market, including Bitcoin.
Similarly, the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months could further raise prices. Lower rates increase market liquidity and bring benefits to both Bitcoin and stocks. However, inflation data is critical. “The impact of tariffs will help maintain high inflation and reduce the likelihood of cutting this year,” Zanoni said.
Bitcoin institutional and domain adoption
The adoption of facilities remains a key engine for Bitcoin prices. Investment companies and funds increase their currency exposure and consolidate them as reserve assets.
This phenomenon has contributed to an increase in Bitcoin’s advantage in the crypto-active market. Between December 2024 and May 2025, it went from 55% to 62%explained financial analyst Mike Fay.
Fay points out that despite expectations for the “Altcoins season” (if other cryptocurrencies surpass Bitcoin), BTC’s domain remains strong. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoins Seasonal Index He fell to 12 in April, but rebounded 34 so far in May, and in three months he was his highest level.
“The excellent performance of an altcoin is usually an indicator of upward market fatigue,” explains Fay. It suggests that the market is still showing signs of overheating.
How far does Bitcoin arrive?
Zanoni projects objective price $150,000 in October 2025based on a minimum of 10 times the cycle multiple ($15,000) and a Fibonacci level of 2,618. However, it warns that the price may not exceed its historical maximum of $109,000.
“If Bitcoin is still rebounding above this level, there’s a greater likelihood of a parabolic stage going on,” he says.
Fay uses a top cycle indicator that combines a 111 day mobile average with a double multiple on a 350 day mobile average. Currently, this indicator places the top of the cycle at $157,000which means a 50% rise potential from the current level.
Another indicator, MVRV (ratio of market value to created value), It shows that Bitcoin is not overvalued compared to previous cycles. The current MVRV is 212%, far from the peak of 435% in 2017 and 373% in 2021.
Fay also emphasizes that BTC yields decreased when it was halved. In the first cycle, a return of 7,000%, a second 3,000%, and a third produced a return of 1,000%. In the current cycle, Fay considers 100% (approximately $130,000) to be more realistic than 200% ($190,000). “It’s wise to wait for a much lower performance up to the previous cycle,” he says.
The story and the basics
The key to the discussion is whether the rise of BTC responds to a solid foundation or a speculative narrative. Faye argues that prices are more relevant to the flow of capital to anti-foot papers More than the actual utility of distributed systems.
“We can see Bitcoin, a digital asset, but so far its ratings have been more of a narrative than a user base growth,” he says.
Still, Faye has not ruled out the possibility of Bitcoin. “Bitcoin remains a good buying option given the rising prices, investor profits and lack of overheating metrics,” he says.
but, Bitcoin miners warn that they could face long-term challenges If the incentive to validate a transaction decreases.
Bitcoin’s upward path, but risky
Bitcoin appears to be made up of a parabolic stage that can take prices to new maximums in the coming months. Although the risk continues, technical indicators, trade agreements, and institutional adoptions support this perspective.
inflation, Federal Reserve Decision and Ability to Over $109,000 Previously They become important factors to monitor.
Investors must proceed with caution. As Zanoni warns, “There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will behave like in the previous cycle.” However, the upward scenario appears to be solid as RSI is far from excessive levels and macroeconomic catalysts are at risk.
