Bitcoin defends $64,000 after US and Israeli attacks on Iran as ETF flows return to center stage
Bitcoin traded through the macro shock over the weekend after US and Israeli attacks on Iran sparked regional retaliation.
The biggest price movement occurred during a period of low liquidity, with spot BTC back around the mid-$64,000 level.
This move reinforces a pattern that has become more pronounced during the ETF era, where Bitcoin can act as a 24/7 pressure valve against macro risks.
At the same time, the deepest marginal liquidity is increasingly concentrated in weekday regulated venues.
This structural division is also reflected in participation.
Weekend trading has subsided since the Spot Bitcoin ETF joined the market in 2024. Coinbase, in particular, has seen a particularly large drop in weekday trading levels since early February, despite a sharp rise in weekday trading levels.
This change could widen the weekend air pocket and increase the likelihood of sharp reversals when geopolitical news breaks.
We also remain focused on Monday’s “next open” variables, particularly spot ETF creation and redemption channels and the persistence of risk premia in interest rates, currency and energy.
If US traders flood ETFs on Monday like they did last week, Bitcoin could continue its recovery, especially if today’s “low high” holds through the rest of the weekend. However, if Bitcoin starts the week within the $63,000 to $61,000 price range, the market could become volatile and Bitcoin could fall further.
The CME angle also continues to be part of traders’ positioning, focusing on the CME weekend gap that forms when futures trading ends but spot trading continues.
The next reading will not be about the weekend candlesticks, but about how the US market will reprice risk when spot Bitcoin ETFs reopen.
Our recent market coverage highlights new inflows, with multi-day ETF inflows reportedly exceeding $1 billion in three sessions, even as prices remained volatile.
At the same time, positioning remains uneven.
Year-to-date net outflows were around $2.6 billion as of mid-February, underscoring the limited reasons why a rebound could become steeper as liquidity thins and headline risk increases.
The macro context is also important, as this is not a one-off geopolitical tape.
Trade policy uncertainty hit risk sentiment earlier this week after the Supreme Court limited President Trump’s tariff powers under emergency powers, forcing a shift in strategy.
In the aftermath, the Section 122 pathway and 15% flat tariffs once again created uncertainty in the U.S. trade outlook.
The asset reaction around this series, including gold’s movement amid tariff uncertainty and dollar weakness coupled with trade uncertainty, positioned Bitcoin as part of a broader policy risk complex, not just a cryptocurrency.
In the case of the Iran channel, markets tend to focus on energy flows, as oil is the clearest transmission channel from geopolitics to inflation expectations, yields, and the dollar.
This combination could result in tighter financial conditions for risk assets.
Axios’ breakdown of energy routes highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 25% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of LNG shipments, is a choke point.
A separate report also focuses on oil sensitivity and OPEC+ reaction functions that will shape whether weekend stress eases or becomes more of an interest rate-driven risk-off.
Against this background, the rebound can be mapped around a small series of levels that distinguish between “controlled escalation” and “energy shock” outcomes.
Based on the levels visible in the move, the immediate battleground is around the mid-$64,000s, with a support shelf below and a resistance band near the previous highs.
| level | role | Why is it important for reopening? |
|---|---|---|
| $64,700 | primary support zone | Area defended during weekend shock. Holding keeps the rebound theory intact. |
| $65,400 | first collection | Once it recovers, the pullback turns into an attempt to restart the trend. |
| $63,800 | breakdown shelf | A loss shifts focus to lower support and increases the likelihood of a deeper stop cascade. |
| $62,850 | deeper support | If it fails, it will draw attention to a broader movement towards round number support. |
| $69,270 – $70,730 | resistance bands | A zone that requires sustained risk appetite and constructive ETF flow printing. |
On a contained escalation path, the focus remains on whether Bitcoin holds around $64,700 until the US reopens and then regains $65,400.
If the ETF flow data remains positive, the $69,000 to $70,000 area will move back into play.
A further disadvantage has to do with energy.
If the differential in oil prices widens further and the bid holds, the market’s initial reaction will often be due to higher inflation prices, firmer yields, and a stronger dollar, a combination that could put pressure on Bitcoin even if the initial decline has already occurred.
In that case, any move below approximately $63,800 will focus attention on $62,850.
If these shelves fail, broader round number support is the next reference point.