The weekend’s slow struts partially cancelled last week’s losses, but analysts are cautious.
Experts say the top ciphers are up 1.5% from Saturday’s low of $112,692, but increased headwinds could make recovery shorter and a sharp reversal could be possible. Decryption We spoke on Monday.
The first major headwind is the exposed US stock market. According to Nomura Data, the Commodity Trade Advisor (CTA) position is a long stock exposure of 110%, at a level not seen in four years.
As Han Qin, CEO of tokenized investment platform Jarsy, said, this has driven “market momentum.” Decryptionhowever, he added that this makes the market “more vulnerable to sharp reversals.”
The wide range of equity pullbacks triggered by CTA Deleveraging can lead to risk assets, including Bitcoin, facing short-term pressure.
This pressure from the traditional market is linked to sustained sales from the crypto space itself.
Shawn Dawson, Head of Research for On-Chain Options Platform Decryption The options trader is aiming for puts between $100,000 and $80,000 and braces them for the pullback. These traders are looking for a price reversal between 10% and 30% next month.
The outlook becomes even more sensitive with recent macroeconomic data. The market has gained the advantage with downward revisions of 258,000 non-farm salaries in May and June.
Period of “copper melting”
Not everyone expects a dramatic crash among these bear signals. Crypto analyst Maarten Regterschot said Decryption Things he doesn’t expect Bitcoin It’s below $112,000.
Instead, he expects a period of “copper chloride” following recent short-term holder sales, suggesting that the period of lateral trading is more likely than a full-scale price collapse.
Some analysts hint at a more aggressive Fed pivot, but that potential catalyst is still months away.
“Fed Pivot is here,” Fundstrat Capital Cio Tom Lee said in a tweet, acknowledging the severity of the downward revision to employment data.
The Fed has a dual duties of employment and inflation.
– Goldman says the revisions to these employment reports are so large that they have never seen them in 57 years. Oops🤯
– This strengthens the case where the labour market is far from Fed delegation.
For me, read like FRED PIVOT is coming = https://t.co/f2r5gro57i
– Thomas (Tom) Lee (not a drummer) fsinsight.com (@fundstrat) August 3, 2025
This sentiment is reflected by Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group.
CME’s FedWatch tool shows an 81.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in September.