On-chain data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) does not weaken the market structure, but rather shows a short slide to bolster $100,000. June 10th Report.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,500 after reaching $110,600 per week on June 9th, following a rise of over 4%.
The report notes that the 9% drawdown on June 7 followed by $111,965, resulting in only $200 million in losses, which is significantly lower than previous revisions to this cycle.
Suspension limited to recent participants
Most exits show surrender by recent entrants, not broad sales across seasoned wallets, as they come from BTCs for less than a week. No lost takes were during the journey due to addresses that had held Bitcoin for over three months.
Meanwhile, open interest, the seventh largest delavage event since 2023, fell by $2.3 billion. This movement suggested that decline was driven primarily by the liquidation of derivatives rather than spot distribution.
Prices bouncing off before testing the short-term holders’ cost base at $97,600, exceeding the psychological $100,000 price level.
The report emphasized that holding that band holds cyclic momentum intact, as 41% of trading days since bottom in 2022 experienced a deeper pullback.
Long-term holders achieved a profit of $930 million per day at a recent peak, exceeding $100,000 at the pace recorded during the breakout in March, far below the $1.64 billion seen in early April.
Long term holders retain supply
Even as spending increased, the total cohort balance continued to rise. This is a rare pattern in late cycle conditions. The report attributes to the supply of stickiness to the Exchange Sales Fund (ETF) custody programs and other institutional channels that remove coins from the liquid circulation.
The realized profit margin for long-term holders reached 9.4, with the threshold above below 16% of trading days since 2011, usually associated with euphoria. meanwhileUTXO recognizes that the price distribution shows a band of dense coins ranging from about $100,000 to $103,000.
The price currently sits at the top of the cluster, with a relatively light historic volume above it, creating an “air gap” area that allows for rapid movement if demand continues.
The realized supply density, which measures supply share on a cost basis close to spot prices, has increased alongside recent gatherings, indicating an increase in sensitivity.
Options traders look indifferent as the volatility implied by both short and long tenors continues to decline. This is an attitude that precedes volatility spikes in past cycles. The report pointed to contrast as a potential setup for bigger moves if prices were retested at the highest ever.
For now, the muted response to last week’s decline and a rapid recovery of over $100,000 has left the uptrend intact, signaling that demand has absorbed the biggest futures-driven shakeout in two months.