Bitcoin (BTC) retention patterns suggest a potential reopening of uptrends from late September 2025, as long-term accumulation data reveals the evolving market dynamics driven by institutional adoption and policy catalysts.
An analysis of Crypto Dan, a crypto-Korean community manager, reveals that the current cycle is different from the previous bull market due to extended time frames and gradients in flattening momentum.
The percentage of Bitcoin held for more than a year based on realized market capitalization shows a unique characteristic of the current cycle compared to previous phases.
Unlike past cycles where rapid surges led to rapid peaks, institutional adoption and nation-state purchases through spot exchange trade funds (ETFs) extended the bull market period and gradually flattened the uptrend slope.
Market momentum faces regular stalling as capital shifts towards altcoins. This is a pattern that was repeated multiple times during the current cycle. That contrasts with 2023-2024, when Bitcoin dominated the market’s attention before capital began to migrate to alternative cryptocurrencies.
Favorable background
Crypto Dan noted that the expected cuts to interest rate cuts in September matched Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns and technical indicators.
Polymarket Traders currently has an odds of 81% on a 25 basis point federal reserve cut at its FOMC meeting in September, providing a potential catalyst for valuation of risk assets.
The analysis also predicts additional momentum from the expected approval of the AltCoin ETF in October.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyfert said in April that most Crypto ETF applications face a final deadline in October, potentially making it the month of approval for Spot Altcoin products.
This timeline creates a policy window that favors the crypto market as we enter the fall season.
Combined with seasonal patterns showing Bitcoin strength in the fall months, Dovish’s convergence of monetary policy and regulatory clarity positions an updated upward momentum market following the current phase of integration.
Extended cycle characteristics
Institutional adoption fundamentally changed the cycle dynamics of Bitcoin compared to the retail-driven phase that preceded it.
The introduction of Spot ETFs and the adoption of the Ministry of Corporate Finance created a more stable flow of demand, but the cycle period has been extended. The analysis suggests that these structural changes support the situation of a durable bull market despite the regular integration stage.
Given the favorable policy background and the development of institutional infrastructure, additional revisions during the transition period could present an attractive cumulative opportunity.
The combination of interest rate cuts, ETF approvals and seasonal factors support the optimistic market outlook for fall and winter 2025.