Asia-centric Tiger Research has set a third price target of $190,000 for Bitcoin BTC$111,073.43claims that record global liquidity, structural ETF demand, and new 401(k) access will provide the market with its strongest setup since 2021.
Tiger’s model pegs a “base price” of $135,000, then overlaps the base (+3.5%) and macro condition (+35%) multipliers to reach a $190,000 forecast, earning 67% from this week’s average of $113,000.
The report relies on three major drivers: M2 money supply, which exceeds $90 trillion, ETFs and corporate accumulation, currently accounts for 6% of Bitcoin supply.
Trump’s executive order allowing 401(k) exposure adds what Tiger calls “the critical signal of the transition to Bitcoin’s core facility holdings.” Even a 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion pool would equal nearly $90 billion in demand.
You can see accumulation. The ETF collectively owns 1.3 million BTC, while the Strategy (MSTR) owns over 629,000 coins, worth $71 billion. Purchases through convertible bonds gave structural quality to the strategy flow. Additionally, the volume of transfers is large but larger with smaller transactions, and is significantly skewed, reflecting the pivot from retail traffic to institutional blocking activity.
Still, the report acknowledges that the network appears to be unbalanced. Daily trading and active users have fallen far below last year’s highs, with retail participation declining. New initiatives like BTCFI are needed to rekindle activities beyond the institution’s wallets.
The on-chain gauge also flushes your attention. The MVRV-Z tracks market prices above what the owner originally paid, at 2.49. This is the zone that precedes the correction as profits accumulate in past cycles.
The adjusted used production profit ratio (ASOPR) is 1.019. This means that the coins on sale are only a small profit, suggesting that traders are trapped in modest profits rather than extreme cash.
The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), a measure of unrealized profits and losses across the network, is 0.558, indicating a healthy but still euphoric position. Taken together, the data suggests a market that is hot but not yet overexposed.
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