Bitcoin Weather Shows Global Tariff Storms Suggesting the Possibility of a Safe Haven

Bitcoin (BTC) shows surprising signs of resilience in one of the most volatile macroeconomic environments in recent history, as aggressive US tariffs rattled global markets and retreated risky assets.

Despite a pullback of 19.1% from its January high, Bitcoin is better than most major altcoins and stocks, increasing its short rebounds on the day the traditional market sunk, Binance Research said in a report on April 7.

Based on encrypted data, Bitcoin is trading at $79,850 as of press time, an increase of 2.4% over the past 24 hours.

The report noted that long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC. This shows that Bitcoin could reassert the story of a safe ship in the face of economic uncertainty.

According to the report:

“Bitcoin’s behavior over the last few weeks has revealed significant changes. It remains sensitive to macro shocks, but is beginning to be detached from broader risk assets due to peak stress moments.”

That divergence occurs as that difference causes a global tariff spiral that has not been seen since the 1930s. President Donald Trump, who returned to his office in January, cleaned up import duties on April 5th.

The move culminated with 10% blanket collection in almost every country around the world, with steep country-specific fees tiered, including 54% in China, 20% in the EU and 46% in Vietnam.

China and Canada are already retaliating, with further global responses expected. Meanwhile, more than 50 countries have agreed to concessions.

Sturdy bitcoin in the fear of stagflation, nurture uncertainty

The crypto market as a whole lost more than $1 trillion worth (a 25.9% drop), but Bitcoin is less volatile than high beta sectors such as memokine and AI-binding tokens, dropping by more than 50%. They are often sensitive to risk-off movements, with Ethereum (ETH) exceeding 40%.

According to the data, the 30-day correlation with Bitcoin stocks increased from –0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, reflecting consistency with broader market sentiment during tariff escalation.

However, at the same time, the correlation with previous neutral gold fell to –0.22, suggesting that Bitcoin may be positioned differently from traditional risk and safe assets.

Importantly, long-term supply metrics remain strong. The number of Bitcoin held by long-term investors continues to rise, suggesting convictions between holders even as volatility rises. Some analysts see this as a signal that if macro conditions are stable, they can regain that footing faster than other digital assets.

The background of macros is becoming more and more complicated. Currently, the average US tariff rate reaches nearly 19%, up from just 2.5% last year, the sharpest rise since Great Fear Presion. Inflation expectations are rising, and consumer surveys show that even as global growth forecasts weaken, they are rising towards 5%.

This has created a threat to male dogs that complicates the central bank’s response. The Federal Reserve once focused directly on cooling inflation, but is expected to cut interest rates up to four times this year, based on the Fed’s funding futures market.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that recent tariffs could “better than expected” and undermine both price stability and growth.

Decoupling or dependency?

Whether Bitcoin continues to outperform in this environment may depend on two factors: monetary policy and narrative momentum.

If pivots are eased to ease while the Fed is mitigating inflation, BTC can benefit from new liquidity and its positioning as a replacement for non-sorber “hard money.”

Binance Research noted that the long-term correlation with Bitcoin stocks remains modest, with an average of 0.32 since 2020, with gold only 0.12. As with the banking crisis in March 2023, past periods have demonstrated the BTC’s ability to separate and rallies amid wider instability.

According to the report:

“If markets become stable and Bitcoin regains its role as an inflation hedge, it could attract new trends as traditional portfolios seek to diversify.”

For now, Crypto remains connected to the macro heading. Tariffs, inflation prints, and central bank signals drive emotions. However, the relative strength of Bitcoin from the storm offers a glimpse into the role that can play in a fractured, protectionist world economy.

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