The Bitwise and UTXO Management project, according to a new report published by Bitwise and UTXO Management on May 23, shows that 20% of all Bitcoin (BTC) will be able to move to the facility’s balance sheet by the end of 2026.
The study, called “A Study of the Game Theory of Hyper-Bitcoinization,” models five demand channels for Bitcoin.
Nation-States tops the list with a 5% swap to Bitcoin of existing gold reserves, an allocation of $161.7 billion, equivalent to 1.62 million BTC, or 7.7% of the 21 million Coin cap.
If a client chooses a 0.2% position, the wealth management platform, which oversees approximately $60 trillion, can direct $120 billion to the Spot Bitcoin Exchange Trade Fund.
Public companies already owned Over 600,000 BTC Collectivelyand could add another 1.18 million coins ($117.8 billion) as fair value accounting rules and peer competition strengthen the Treasury adoption.
Meanwhile, 13 US state reserve bills translate into a model’s $19.6 billion purchase, while the sovereign wealth fund accounts for a $7.8 billion base case. Total flows totaled $427 billion, approximately 4.27 million BTC, or 20% of supply.
Pass to 20% of Bitcoin supply by 2026
Bitwise and Utxo cited the first year performance of the US Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF).
The report argued that major wirehouses and private banks would soon begin accessing ETFs, turning dormant interest into an order.
Once holdings accumulate, the report expects a pivot towards BTC-controlled yields. If only 5% of $2 trillion Bitcoin capital is looking for on-chain lending, basis trading or bridge operator fees, it values the early Bitcoin finance market at $100 billion.
Companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet will use these tools to expand their reserves without new share issues.
The US’s favourable policies
Additionally, policy initiatives add structural bids. The Bitcoin Act, reintroduced by Senator Cynthia Ramis in March, was set to the Treasury Department. Buy 200,000 BTC every year for 5 years.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with 198,000 Seized Coins.
Parallel State Invoice Caps BTC with up to 10% of rainy day funds, reinforcing what the author describes as a game theory loop. Each cohort accumulates acts on peers who remove circulating supply, lift the price floor, and slow pressure.
Bitwise and Utxo conclude that interactions between sovereignty, corporations, and wealth platforms can drive adoption into portfolio mechanics and public-finance financial policies beyond speculative trade.
This report frames this progression as a step towards “hyper-bitcoin transformation.” This will be driven by balance sheet management rather than market sentiment, and will become an institution that will accumulate around 20% of its Bitcoin supply by 2026.
