Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year cycle, once the dominant framework for predicting price movements, is beginning to lose its impact.
In a July 25th post on X, Hougan noted that the mature nature of the Crypto market, coupled with increasing institutional involvement, has undermined the power that historically shaped Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior.
Why Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle died
According to Hogan, Bitcoin’s halving once played a pivotal role in fueling supply shocks and fueling bull markets, but its impact is declining.
He also noted that the wider macro environment has changed. Interest rates no longer put the same downward pressure on the crypto market as they did in previous cycles.
Hougan added that clearer regulatory structures are emerging across the crypto industry. This, combined with greater institutional surveillance, reduced extreme volatility and the risk of collapse that once plagued the market.
According to Hougan, the crypto landscape is now evolving more strategically. The assets will flow to the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which began in earnest in 2024, but are expected to continue for the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions, from pension funds to national account platforms, have just begun to provide crypto access to clients.
Additionally, legislative support, such as the recent passing of the Genius Act, has further accelerated entry into Wall Street spaces and set the stage for a sustained inflow of capital.
abolition
This sentiment is reflected by Ki Young Ju, an encrypted CEO who recently walked the previous bearish call based on an older cycle model.
In April, Ju warned that Bitcoin rally peaked at nearly $80,000, but assets continued to rise, eventually surpassing $123,000 this month.
Looking back on that mistake, Ju said the dynamics of the traditional accumulation distribution in which whales are sold to retail demand are not long. Instead, institutional investors and corporate finance ministries have emerged as dominant buyers, restructuring market behavior and reducing speculative churn.
What’s next for Bitcoin?
As a result, these deeper structural changes challenge long-standing assumptions about Bitcoin.
With this in mind, Hougan suggested that the market is moving from the boom bust cycle to more consistent long-term growth.
He acknowledges the potential for short-term volatility, but considers 2026 to be a strong year of performance driven by persistent adoption trends rather than a recursive market pattern.
