A new report from Bitcoin veterans Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research claims that the current market stage could be “quiet strength” for Bitcoin. A mid-cycle stage that could become one of the “most important bull runs” in Bitcoin history.
How to place the Bitcoin boom
The report, led by Bitcoin economist and early investor Tuur Deester, entitled “Bitcoin Boom’s Position,” predicts a price rise of 4-10 times from current levels.
“I think this is a mid-cycle that could become one of the most important bull runs in Bitcoin history. I think there is still a path from the current range to a path of 4-10 times the value, meaning that Bitcoin is north of $500,000.”
Several indicators support this paper, as on-chain trends suggest deep beliefs among experienced holders. For example, the report shows that large investors (whales) have not been dumped. Hodler’s net position change has shown no signs of a major surrender so far in 2025. This is an action that is generally related to market peaks.
“Whales have been running over the past two years when Bitcoin retested its previous all-time highs in US elections. But nowhere in 2025, Hodler has been the net mover of over 100,000 coins a day.
Another indicator is net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL). This suggests that 50-70% of the Bitcoin supply is unrealized profits. This is more consistent with healthy, central optimism, rather than late stage happiness.
Potential headwinds remain low probability
Although this report outlines potentially corrected catalysts, the risk of derailing the Bull Market is limited. For example, major hacks can gain confidence, but past examples have little impact on BTC prices.
“We believe that only in extreme cases, the hack can actually arrest or end Bitcoin Bull Market. When 120,000 Bitcoins were stolen from Bitfinex in 2016, they are hardly registered in the price.”
Plus, Mt. The distribution of Gox and Decruptcy Coin has reached just 4% due to the liquidation of 80,000 BTC in July 2025.
It reportedly contains 10% of Bitcoin supply by Coinbase, which could pose a concentration risk. However, ETF issuers have begun diversifying their custody options, and custody seizures have low odds under the current US administration. This is actively integrating Bitcoin into monetary policy.
While macro crashes can cause short-term volatility, the report hopes that Bitcoin will resume out-performing products and inflation in the long term.
Tuur Demeester is solid: Bitcoin on Altcoins
The report takes a clean break from 2015 advice to maintain small altcoin allocations, recommending instead keeping only bitcoin and avoiding scattered capital across “very inferior” projects that lack network effects, security models, and financial purity.
The author compares the role of BTC to the basic layer of the Internet, a singular and dominant protocol, losing rivals such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano over time.
Tuur Demeester singles “long-term storage of value” demand as the core engine for Bitcoin’s current and future growth. This is driven by several factors, including sustained inflation, fiscal deficits, bonds losing their decades of safe shelter status, the declining appeal of real estate as a hedge, and capital turnover into liquids and low-selling risk assets.
After El Salvador’s 2021 statutory bid move, US adoptions are accelerating under the pro-Bitcoin policy from the Trump administration, including the creation of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, the support act like a genius act, and the rapid adoption of the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which currently holds around 1.4 million btc.
Such an offensive move by the US has encouraged other countries to explore their own Bitcoin strategies. As the report points out:
“These strong support is beginning to cause global ripple effects.”
Several factors need to be considered when it comes to the extent that Bitcoin investors should allocate to their portfolios, including risk tolerance and conviction level. According to the report, a 5% allocation serves as a systematic risk insurance, but doubling it is considered a speculative hedge of a diverse portfolio. Holders with 20-50% allocation signal their high beliefs and “early retirement” play.
Speaking of detention, this report supports a joint multi-signature setup as the best balance between self-robbery and operational safety, especially for new recruits.
Not a peak, but a mid-cycle
Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research confirm that Bitcoin’s current bull market is over now more than ever, with institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds and strong holder beliefs setting the stage for potential benefits of historical benefits.
This is a “midcycle” rather than a peak, and if Bitcoin offers valuable promises, it could redefine its position in the global financial system for the next few years.
Bitcoin Market Data
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