Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm is slipping. A new combination of investor and policy movements is changing the way markets trade and when they move. If that pattern breaks, timing entries are more tricky for everyone watching the Bitcoin cycle.
Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said, “It’s not officially finished until we saw a positive return in 2026. But I think this is so, so I think the four-year cycle is over.” If he’s right, the old playbook needs to be rewritten.
ETF and initial highs scramble normal scripts
The cycle was easy for years. Half hits hit about every four years, reducing minor rewards in half. Supply growth slows. Only 21 million coins exist.
Usually, the price goes up after half, tagging new highs and dumping 70%-80%. “Crypto Winter” continues. range. Then the next half will restart. The final halving was in May 2020 and April 2024.
This time, prices jumped first. Bitcoin set a record of over $73,000 in March 2024, a month ago, halfway through. “For each previous cycle, half-highs came from half-12-18 months later,” said Saksham Diwan, a research analyst at Coindesk Data. The difference was the US approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024. These funds track Bitcoin without holding a coin to the buyer. The flow was big and fast.
Saksham added: A larger, more sticky capital emerged and held positions longer.
Regulation changes, past explosions, macros push markets out of old roads
The ETF wasn’t the only thrust. Matthew pointed to past “Crypto explosions” that set winter, citing the ICO crash in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022. He also flagged macro turns.
“The interest rates are likely to fall shorter than next year, and the fact that regulators and lawmakers are willing to engage in crypto rather than decisively refusing to deal with it dramatically reduces the risk of future explosions,” he said.
Under former SEC chairman Gary Gensler, the agency has filed several lawsuits against the crypto company. Industry players said they were targeted. Under US President Donald Trump, the SEC has removed several cases. Washington is working on a new cryptographic method and has launched a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Public companies are adding coins to their balance sheets.
Ryan Chow, co-founder of SolV Protocol, said, “With increased market maturity, the accumulation of the highest long-term holders ever, and attenuated volatility, the traditional four-year rhythm has been replaced by more fluidity-sensitive and macro-correlated behaviour.” It’s a clean break from a minor-driven script.
Where are we now? Historically, the biggest advantage came halfway after 500-720 days. In 2016 and 2020, Peaks landed in its windows. “If this pattern is repeated, potential accelerations between the third quarter 2025 and early 2026 should be monitored,” Saksham said, “This cycle is particularly restricted compared to previous harning periods.”
Matthew says the cycle is still complete, but he wants a strong 2026 to seal it down. “I don’t think we’ve abolished volatility, but a) I think the power that historically created a four-year cycle is weaker than in the past. Bitcoin printed a fresh record on July 14th, exceeding $123,000.
Previous cycles showed a drawdown of 70%-80% after the high. Ryan believes that “we have an era of brutal 70-80% drawdowns behind us.” The biggest closure decline in this cycle is around 26%, from 2017 onwards and ~77% since 2021 onwards. He praised long-term holders and stable institutional influx. He still expects 30%-50% pullbacks of macro or regulatory shocks, but considers them to be shorter and less violent.
Matthew agrees in that direction, with a clear line in depth. “I think 70% pullbacks are a thing of the past.”
