Bitcoin held steady near $89,600 on the four-hour chart as traders weighed technical recovery signals against tight liquidity conditions. Prices rebounded after successfully defending recent lows, restoring short-term confidence.
In addition to technical positioning, derivatives data and macro liquidity narratives are currently shaping Bitcoin’s broader outlook. As a result, market participants are watching to see if the momentum gains further or stalls below significant resistance.
Stabilization of short-term structural signals
Bitcoin has risen above the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating that short-term momentum is improving from recent weakness. However, price remains below the 100-EMA and 200-EMA, and the broader structure remains range-bound.
Therefore, the bulls will face immediate pressure near the $89,700 to $90,000 supply zone. A decisive move above this area could test the $91,200 level, where sellers have been intervening.
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Furthermore, if a 4-hour close above the 200 EMA is confirmed, momentum could head towards $94,700. This level coincides with a major Fibonacci extension and could invite participation in a stronger trend.
BTC price dynamics (Source: Trading View)
On the downside, Bitcoin continues to rely on support near $88,000, where multiple moving averages converge. Additionally, the $87,450 zone provides short-term demand close to the lower Bollinger Band. A breakdown below $88,000 could reveal deeper retracement levels around $85,900 and $83,900. As a result, traders remain cautious despite the recent price recovery.
Futures positioning remains strong
Despite recent volatility, open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to grow. Open interest remained elevated around the $55 billion to $60 billion range during the pullback. This action suggests that traders held onto leveraged positions rather than exiting.
Furthermore, during the consolidation phase at the beginning of the year, there was an increase in open interest along with flat price movements. This pattern often reflects position construction rather than distribution. Importantly, the increase in open interest during a bull market supports the view that demand for derivatives will persist.
The story of spot flows and liquidity
Spot market flows paint a more balanced picture. Early capital inflows were often met with sharp outflows, suggesting cautious accumulation. Mid-year data showed that outflows were even greater during periods of strong prices, reflecting profit-taking behavior. Recently, net flows have hovered around neutrality, suggesting a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
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Additionally, the macro liquidity debate is currently impacting long-term expectations. Arthur Hayes argues that the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchase Program works similarly to quantitative easing. He sees this transition as a liquidity support mechanism that will delay the impact on the market.
As a result, Hayes predicts a strong liquidity-driven move that will push Bitcoin towards $200,000 in 2026. BitMEX commentary confirms the increased focus on financial conditions as a long-term catalyst.
Technical outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) price
Bitcoin trades within a tightening short-term structure, so key levels remain well-defined.
Upside levels include the first resistance cluster between $89,700 and $90,000, followed by $91,200 near the 200-EMA. A sustained break above this zone could extend the rally towards $94,700, and if momentum picks up, $103,400 could act as a higher Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $88,300 to $88,000 acts as immediate support from the EMA cluster. Below that, $87,450 and $85,900 remain important demand zones. The broader setup suggests that Bitcoin is compressing within a range after recovering from recent lows.
Will Bitcoin go up?
Bitcoin’s near-term direction will depend on whether buyers can hold the $88,000 level and force acceptance above $91,200. Technical compression, stable futures positioning, and subdued spot flows point to increased volatility ahead. A confirmed breakout could revive the bullish momentum, but failure to hold support risks a further pullback towards $85,900 and $83,900.
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