Continuing advances in quantum computing raise urgent questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin (BTC).
Unlike classic machines, quantum computers solve certain problems exponentially faster, pose a direct threat to Bitcoin.
In particular, using Shor’s algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break elliptic curve encryption (ECC), recover private keys from public keys in a matter of hours, putting exposed funds at risk.
As reported by Finbold, analysts offer a variety of timelines for when the technology cracks Bitcoin and it is worth noting that it has settled at key times over the next decade.
The probability that a quantum computer will divide Bitcoin
Meanwhile, Finbold has gathered insights from Openai’s latest artificial intelligence (AI) model, ChatGPT-5. This issued its own estimates on when this scenario would become a reality, predicting a gradual increase in risk over the next decades.
The model highlighted the mid- to late 2030s as the most likely window of quantum computers “related to encryption.”
To this end, CHATGPT-5 provided a cumulative probability estimate, assigning a probability of less than 5% for the 2025-2029 period, citing current device limitations and immature error correction.
When breakthroughs were aligned with error correction, qubit yield, and coding alignment, a probability was placed between 15% and 25% between 2030 and 2034. The biggest possibility was assigned to 45% to 60% windows for windows in 2035 and 2039, and hardware scaling and algorithm improvements allowed for the first practical key requor demonstration.
If development continues at the current pace, it could be 80% to 95% in the 2040s, and by 2050 the probability will rise to nearly 99%, except for global technological catastrophes.
Bitcoin Code Crack Timeline Acceleration
The model warned that certain milestones could accelerate the timeline immediately, such as large-scale fault-resistant Qubits, machines with millions of low-error Qubits, a complete demonstration of Shor’s algorithm, or government advice that would change from planning to emergency relocation.
To mitigate these risks, ChatGPT recommended aggressive measurements, such as avoiding audit addresses, key reuse, and transferring funds from exposed keys.
It also advised that steer quarter or hybrid signatures between 2026 and 2029, completing a significant custody transition between 2032 and 2035, and fully networked preparation by 2035.
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