Bitcoin broke the $100,000 level this week, reaching $104,000, and then went to about $103,000. The move came after news that we and Chinese officials would sit in Switzerland to talk about the potential trade deals. The market responded quickly. Optimism returned, and Bitcoin rose accordingly. But analysts look beyond the headlines. Global liquidity is true.
Global M2 reaches $111 trillion
Global Macro Investor’s macro researcher Julien Bittel considers the Global M2 Money Supply to be a great key indicator of where Bitcoin is heading. He presented a chart showing the 12-week delay between the increase in M2 and the price of the highest crypto. Simply put, when M2 increases, Bitcoin continues after about three months.
Many people are looking for an updated Global M2 vs Bitcoin chart. Well, it’s here…
Yes – it still talks the same thing:
We are getting higher… pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign
-Julien Tiny, CFA (@bittjulien) May 9, 2025
Between early 2023 and early 2024, the Global M2 rose from $98 trillion to just over $108 trillion. Bitcoin came and ended up over $100,000. However, in mid-2024, the M2 stopped ascension for a certain period of time.
Bitcoin also tapered, falling below $80,000 during that period. Bittel called its scope the integration phase. Today, the M2 is running again. He handed over $111 trillion. If that trend continues, BTC could continue to rise in mid-2025.
Vitel says, “We’re high,” pointing out that the global M2 will rise significantly as a signal.
Others think Bitcoin is the top dog
Not everyone agrees with Vitel timeline. Analyst Benjamin Cohen has questioned the idea that crypto assets are constantly lagging behind changes in liquidity. He noted that Bitcoin reached highs in 2017 and 2021 before the M2 peaked. This does not fit the theory of M2, which leads BTC in 12 weeks.
Cohen offered a different perspective. He believes Bitcoin can lead very well, and the changes to M2 will appear later. If so, the recent rise in the coin will likely keep in mind that global liquidity could decline in the coming months.
What if #bitcoin Do you lead liquidity rather than lagging behind?
Many people show this chart, where the global M2 is equivalent to 3-4 months, followed by BTC.
The problem is that this offset in 2021 indicates that M2 will rise for six months after BTC is on top. pic.twitter.com/gpkbw9jbog
– Benjamin Cowen (@IntoCryptoverse) May 8, 2025
The collapse of FTX still resonates
Cohen also referred to what happened in 2022 when Bitcoin fell sharply. That drop coincided with the M2 bottom out, but the drop lasted long due to the FTX blunder. He argued that Bitcoin’s price movements don’t always stick to the same timeline as the M2. Swapping mistakes like experienced people can disrupt the rhythm.
This perspective reveals another type of prediction. If BTC is trailing rather than lead, the current gathering could indicate a hazard on the horizon rather than resilience.
Pexels featured images, TradingView charts
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