In the face of rapid advances in quantum computing, Elon Musk is raising new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin. Tesla and SpaceX CEOs turned to AI chatbot Grok to learn how possible Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hash algorithm could be cracked by a powerful quantum machine.
His question came as IBM unveiled a major plan for the next generation of quantum systems called Blue Jay.
Grok predicts low risk for at least now
According to Grok, the risk that quantum computers will crack Bitcoin encryption is very low over the next five years. AI estimates that opportunities will remain near zero for that period.
However, looking at 2035, the probability rises slightly, but still less than 10%. These numbers are based on expert evaluations and current quantum functionality.
Based on a 2025 assessment from NIST, IBM and expert research, the probability that quantum computing will divide SHA-256 (reduce pre-image searches over the next five years via Grover’s algorithm) is nearly 0%, and 0% <10%x <10% in under 2035.
-Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
No concerns about masks have come out of nowhere. Companies such as Google and Microsoft are developing their own quantum platforms for Willow and Mayarana 1. This sparked debate as to whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will one day be vulnerable to attacks from these super-powerful systems.
Currently, most quantum systems only have around 1,000 qubits. This is well below the millions of error-corrected Qubits that scientists think are necessary to break Bitcoin’s crypto defenses.
Grok added that more powerful algorithms such as SHA-3 and SHA-512 could be used as alternatives in the future if necessary.
Quantum Computer vs Blockchain
Meanwhile, a recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte shows that quantum computers can quickly pose a threat to the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with about 25% of Bitcoin currently at risk of being stolen through quantum attacks.
Ultimately, quantum computers could be powerful enough to break the entire transaction process, analysts said. To prevent this, Bitcoin networks should adopt post-cantum encryption. This is an emerging but complex solution that cryptographers around the world are currently considering.
Image: The Quantum Insider
IBM’s Blue Jay adds pressure
IBM’s new system, Blue Jay, has over a billion gate operations. This goes far beyond the capabilities of today’s computers.
This is part of the company’s greater efforts to be at the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. Competition is intensifying as other industry giants like Google and Microsoft are not far behind.
Tesla and SpaceX both hold Bitcoin
Mask’s curiosity is more than just academic. Tesla currently owns 11,500 Bitcoin, worth around $1.3 billion at its current price. SpaceX also holds a significant amount, reportedly worth around $850 million. Musk himself confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal portfolio.
Within these holdings, it is no wonder Musk wants to preempt the potential threat. His tweets seem relaxed at first glance, but it shows an increase in awareness in the tech world of how quantum advancements affect the world of crypto and finance.
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