The ETH/BTC ratio made a comeback in May, reversing Ethereum’s unrelenting unperformance months against Bitcoin.
After reaching 11-month minimum of 0.01805 on April 21, ETH/BTC surged to 0.02501 by May 15, recovering 38.6% in under a month and an increase of 17% over the past seven days. The sharp rise shows for the first time Ethereum has shown relative strength since early February, resuming the question of whether ETH can at least regain lost ground after a difficult start to 2025.
The ETH/BTC rebound came as ETH cleared a $2,000 psychological barrier for the first time since early March. From May 8th to May 15th, ETH jumped to 15.8%, rising from $2,206 to $2,554. In contrast, Bitcoin simultaneously slid 0.9% on stretches, dipping from $103,641 to $102,680. The divergence confirms that the rise in ETH/BTC reflects actual capital revolving in Ethereum rather than simply riding on the Bitcoin coattail.
The ratio is 55.6% below the June 2024 high of 0.05631, but the change in momentum remains important. ETH/BTCNOW trades comfortably beyond the 30-day SMA of 0.02031 after spending most of the last three months under it. This sustained strength marks a structural break from the collapse seen by March and April, when Ethereum has been closed for 12 consecutive times above the moving average, slowing down not only Bitcoin but the entire market.
Several signals indicate the possibility that this movement could be carried further. First, ETH/BTC rally began at an extreme low that historically correlates with surrender and final inversion. 0.0180, printed in April, is the level of concordance that was last seen in the crash in March 2020, and the pandemic threatens to crush risk assets across the board.
Second, the surge in ETH, over $2,000, appears to have unleashed a wave of speculative interest that existed earlier this year. The largest day ETH/BTC gain of the month (7.1% jump on May 9th) came just after ETH/USD recovered $2,000.
In particular, rebounds appear to be unique to Ethereum. Bitcoin’s open interest, funding rates and permanent positioning remained relatively restrained in May, lacking the excitement that usually comes with a full-fledged autoseason rotation. This selective enthusiasm means that the catalysts tied to Ethereum itself, such as pending ETF deliberations, future roadmap developments, or new institutional interests, could encourage movement rather than generalized risk appeals. In the truth, ETH could continue to outperform even if Bitcoin is consolidated or traded sideways in early summer.
However, recovery remains vulnerable and fails to defend the newly recaptured 0.024–0.025 zone, which will raise doubts whether the rally is due to genuine fresh allocations or is the product of short cover and tactical average return. The market has a long history of violent short narrowing following deep selling, but the initial purchase exhaustion set reappears once later. In particular, the next few weeks will be important to understand the depth of the rally, as macrovolatility will re-enter the CPI figures in June and the CPI figures later this month.
Even after recovery, the deeper discounts on ETH/BTC compared to last year show how far sentiment has been. From the peak of 0.05631 in June 2024, the ratio collapsed by more than 68%, reaching its April low. Many of Ethereum’s weaknesses in late 2024 and early 2025 were linked to BTC domination as the success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs was concentrated on BTC at the expense of the broader crypto market. With BTC/USD below $105,000 and ETF inflows stagnate, Ethereum may have room to breathe in the end.
Still, there is a lot of reason to cover the ratio. ETH/BTC should rise another 42% from its current level to recover its January 2025 starting point at 0.0355. For long-term holders, recent bounces are encouraging, but they are not yet conclusive. A wider check will require Ethereum to remain out-performed in the face of greater market volatility and Bitcoin bid updates.
In the short term, ETH’s ability to hold profits against Bitcoin while navigating potentially turbulent macro conditions sets the tone of summer. A decisive weekly closure above 0.025 could mark the strongest finish since early March and start dragging systematic allocators (funds and products that rebalance crypto portfolios based on market capitalization or equal weighting) towards Ethereum.
Post ETH-BTC rebounded 38% from April in its first REAL Rally of 2025.
