Alongside the general crypto market, Ethereum (ETH) registered a significant market recovery at the end of April, returning above $1,800. After a massive price correction that began in December 2024, the well-known Altcoin may have finally discovered bullish momentum to turn the fate of investors around. Interestingly, renowned cryptography analyst Burak Kesmeci shed some positive light on this development.
Ethereum Retail Investor Inflows supports bullish cases
In a May 2nd X post, Burak Kesmeci assumes that Ethereum may be entering a long-term price increase based on short-term holder activities. According to veteran analysts, the number of ETH short-term holders or traders has historically been directed towards certain thresholds that mean long-term price gatherings.
In the ETH market, short-term holders refer to wallets or addresses that have recently acquired ETH, which is usually less than 155 days. These investors are usually sensitive to market trends and price volatility, often driven by speculation and quick profit acquisition rather than long-term convictions.
Typically, the number of short-term investors increases, indicating new market interest by new market participants. However, Kesmeci says that now has over 4 million ETH short-term holders, suggesting that the ETH market has enough bullish strength for a robust uptrend.
In particular, as seen in 2022 and 2024, Ethereum previously generated strong price increases when STH numbers exceeded 4 million. Kesmeci said it reflects insufficient market demand to maintain Ethereum’s current gathering as long as ETH short-term holders are below this threshold.
Meanwhile, the number of long-term Ethereum holders now reaches 142.4 million, indicating strong market confidence in the asset price viewing outlook. Coin maturation generally results in an increase in LTH, as short-term holders choose to sell for more than 155 days.
The Ethereum SMA 365 presents another barrier
In addition to developing a cohort of short-term holders, Burak Kesmeci points out that Ethereum is well below the 365-day simple moving average (SMA 365), suggesting that Market Bulls still lacks full control of the market.
As the name suggests, the SMA 365 measures the average closing price over the past 365 days. It is used to indicate price trends and often serves as resistance in bear markets or as support in bull markets. Despite recent market profits, ETH must outperform SMA 365 by $2,849 to confirm its strong upward trend intentions.
At the press conference, Ethereum traded at $1,835, reflecting a 0.80% price decline on past days. Meanwhile, asset trading volume has declined by 15.01%.
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