Ethereum price is trading around $3,000, but the charts and on-chain data both show a pressure zone that traders cannot ignore. Sales of the keychain group continue, and momentum seems to be unstable.
The price of Ethereum is stuck at a point where even the slightest change can change the entire structure.
Momentum weakens due to intervention by long-term holders
ETH price has attempted to recover over the past week, rising around 10%, but the overall trend remains down 23% over the past 30 days. While the bounce looks healthy on the surface, the movement down the chart tells a different story.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures momentum. A hidden bearish divergence formed between November 18th and November 28th.
Ethereum price has hit lows, but the momentum has pushed it back to highs. If this occurs during a downtrend, it is often a weak rebound and indicates that sellers are still in control of the trend.
Ethereum Price Action: TradingView
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Who are those sellers? On-chain data gives you the answer.
Hodler Net Position Change (indicating whether long-term holders are adding or removing ETH) remains in the deep red for the entire month. A red reading means the long-term wallet is sending ETH back to the exchange.
Last week, that pressure increased sharply. On November 22, long-term holders offloaded approximately 334,600 ETH, but by November 28, that number had increased to approximately 973,000 ETH, an increase of approximately 191% in six days.
There was also a local spike of nearly 1.1 million ETH on November 26th. This steady increase in weekly outflows indicates that the group that normally stabilizes the market is now leaning more heavily on the selling side.
Long-term cohort sales: Glassnode
The combination of slowing momentum and the emergence of a secular selloff creates a clear downside risk for ETH.
Ethereum price is at a severe breakpoint
Ethereum price is also approaching the limits of its pennant structure. This can break either way.
ETH is currently trading just above the $3,016 support zone, which lines up with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If this bottom is broken, the next level would be a 5% decline at $2,864. A deeper decline could open $2,619, especially if the long-term selloff continues.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
To cancel the bearish setup, ETH needs to rise above $3,138. This level breaks the pennant’s upper trendline and reverses the short-term bias. Without this break, the chart will remain vulnerable.
Although the pennant could technically break out either way, the RSI setup and long-term sell-off tilt the risk of Ethereum price towards a downside break unless buyers intervene soon.
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