Ethereum rebounds 95% in a month – is this the start of a $10,000 cycle or is it just a technical aperture?

Ethereum price forecasts are bullish after a 95% rebound, but can ETH really go above $2,600, or is this just a post-stop momentum?

Ethereum is finally back to playing

Ethereum (ETH) is quiet and has a strong recovery. After a few weeks of relatively calm, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has risen by more than 6% in the last 24 hours, and is currently trading around $2,613 as of May 14th.

In the past week, ETH has won 44%, briefly touching $2,736 on May 13th, the highest level since late February.

Just a month ago, ETH was trading at nearly $1,336 on April 9th. That low led to growing concern over the US-induced trade war that rattled wider markets.

Ethereum has since recovered nearly 95%, supported by a growing sense of optimism about its macro uncertainty and its long-term role in the digital economy.

On Tuesday, the latest US inflation report showed consumer prices had risen by just 0.2% in the month of April. Annual inflation was 2.3%, slightly above the Federal Reserve targets. Also, after a 90-day trade ceasefire between the US and China, market sentiment improved.

Ethereum also gains power from within its own ecosystem. The recent Pectra upgrade introduced performance improvements aimed at increasing network efficiency and transaction speed.

Upgrade was released when ETH set a price of nearly $1,700, and its development coincided with a wider price recovery, strengthening market confidence in Ethereum’s future scalability.

The pace of the rallies has been measured so far. Trading volumes are steadily building, with few indications of speculative overload or leveraged positioning.

Let’s take a look at how the latest developments are affecting Ethereum price forecasts.

Bernstein’s paper and the changing role of ETH

According to a client’s notes by research led by analyst Gautam Chhugani and brokerage company Bernstein, Ethereum’s bounce is driven by three overlapping forces marking deviations from previous delayed performance.

Until recently, Ethereum was performing both Bitcoin (BTC) and its faster Layer 1 competitors. The ETH to BTC ratio has fallen by about 45% over the past year, especially as investors favored Bitcoin in its valuable storage role, following the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF.

At the same time, retail attention has shifted towards new chains offering lower fees and faster trading. In Bernstein’s view, Ethereum found himself stuck in the middle. It was no longer the fastest platform for everyday users, nor did it order the same level of institutional trust as Bitcoin.

That context is beginning to change. Bernstein notes that Ethereum is beginning to benefit from its focus on stable usage, real-world asset tokenization, and the maturation of its layer 2 network.

Stablecoins and tokenized securities have gained meaningful traction as tools for payment and settlement. Ethereum hosts more than half of the total supply of Stablecoin and places it as a natural payment layer for these transactions.

According to RWA.xyz, real-world tokenization, which is currently valued at over $22 billion, is also centered around Ethereum, with companies such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton leading the way.

The second major driver comes from the Layer 2 ecosystem of Ethereum. While some have questioned whether these networks would directly benefit Ethereum, Bernstein notes that several institutional grade applications are beginning to emerge.

For example, Coinbase-backed base generated $84 million in revenue last year. These Layer 2 platforms still rely on settlements and gas ETH, enhancing the fundamental economic utility of the assets.

Wonderfi’s Robinhood acquisition, which operates a Layer 2 network, suggests a path that could allow brokers to start launching tokenized stocks on Ethereum-compatible infrastructure.

The third factor is more market-driven. Over the past year, many hedge funds have used ETH as a hedge in their portfolio, shortening it for a long time remaining in other assets such as Bitcoin and Solana (SOL), creating consistent downward pressure on ETH compared to the wider market.

Many of these short positions are closed as Ethereum stories begin to align more closely with real-world adoption trends. Bernstein sees this as one of the troops that have contributed to ETH’s recent outperformance.

Taken together, these factors suggest that ethereum rises not only shift emotionally, but also deeper structural changes in network usage and assessment.

Upgrades, blobs, and long-term roadmap

Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, characterized by new pushes to scalability and real-world ease of use. This shift began with the deployment of Pectra, the most important upgrade of the network since the 2022 merge.

Key improvements introduced in Pectra include double the blob capacity of Layer 2 networks. This helps reduce crowds and transaction fees.

This upgrade also allows account abstraction, allowing users to pay gas fees with stable coins such as DAI (DAI) and USD coins (USDC).

Another major change involves increasing the largest validator shares from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, making node operations more efficient for facility participants.

With Pectra currently live, developer attention has moved to Fusaka, the next major protocol upgrade for Ethereum, expected by the end of 2025.

A central feature of Fusaka is the availability sampling of peer data, or Peerdas. The proposal is intended to help ETH manage large amounts of off-chain data while maintaining network security and performance.

Peerdas is based on the concept of blob data introduced during previous Dencun upgrades. Blobs are temporary data chunks stored outside of Ethereum Mainnet and are increasingly used by layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), and Base.

These networks improve efficiency by dealing with outward chains, while continuing to use ETH for final payments and security. Relying on blobs allows for lower cost and faster operation without overloading the base layer.

Peerdas enhances this system by allowing Validators to check only small samples of BLOB data rather than full datasets. This change increases bandwidth efficiency and supports higher transaction loads without compromising distribution or speed.

Reducing the burden of validators while maintaining network performance makes it easier for developers and institutions to deploy complex applications at scale.

Despite these advances, Ethereum’s upgrade timeline remains a concern. Networks have a history of latency, often due to the challenge of coordinating the broad testing and distributed developer ecosystem.

Originally targeted in late 2024, Pectra faced multiple postponements before it went live in May 2025. Similar uncertainty now surrounds Fusaka, with many in the community looking closely to see if they will stay on schedule.

At the same time, alternative blockchains are gaining attention through faster release cycles and simpler governance models. This contrast sparked continued debate about the role of the Ethereum Foundation and the network’s ability to adapt to greater agility.

Ethereum price forecasts and technical signals

Ethereum rallies over the past week have surfaced several important signals pointing to emotional changes, but to some degree there has been a lingering attention.

Daan Crypto Trades highlights the unusually large weekly candles. This is due to the rewinding of accumulated short positions that have been accumulated over the past few months.

In his view, such a move could distort short-term price signals. He recommends watching how it unfolds over the coming weeks to assess whether actual demand will continue, meaning that recent momentum is partly mechanical and could fade as a positioning reset.

Michael Van de Poppe takes a broader perspective, noting that the ETH to BTC ratio has risen by about 40% from the recent low. He sees this as a sign of a change in capital turnover, and Ethereum is beginning to recover after a long underestimation of stretches.

At the same time, he warns that 20% to 30% corrections during strong trends should be normal and treated as expected volatile rather than an early sign of debilitating.

From a technical standpoint, some analysts are monitoring potential gaps. According to Crypto’s Titan, ETH recently filled the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap between $2,540 and $2,620.

The next reclamation gap is in the $2,890-$3,230 zone. CME gaps have historically shown a trend towards closing over time, but they cannot be filled in any time. If upward momentum persists, these levels may act as a demand zone.

Another market analyst, VirtualBacon, claims that the previous performance of ETH led to the period in which it occurred. His base case suggests that when Bitcoin rises to $200,000 and the ETH to BTC ratio returns to 0.05, ETH could reach $10,000.

A transition to $12,000 is also possible under more aggressive conditions, including BTC rising from BTC to ETH, where BTC touches 0.06.

Some institutional forecasts support similar expectations. In a previous analysis, asset manager Vaneck predicted that ETH could exceed $6,000 in 2025.

Whether these Ethereum price forecasts come to fruition depends on broader market sentiment and how quickly investors’ focus moves from speculation to real-world utilities.

As always, attention is essential and always remember the golden rules. Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.