Ethereum managed to break above the psychologically important $3,000 level, providing a fleeting sense of relief after weeks of compression and indecision. Although this movement represents a constructive development in the short term, the price trend is still far from the technical threshold required to fully re-establish the broad uptrend.
Against this backdrop, on-chain and derivatives data are beginning to show subtle but noticeable changes. CryptoQuant analysis reveals that the 14-day moving average of Ethereum’s taker-buy ratio on Binance has increased to 1.005, its highest level since July. A ratio greater than 1 indicates that active buy orders outnumber sell orders in the market, indicating increased bullish intent among derivatives traders.
The report explains that ETH remains well below its previous cycle high, meaning this increase in aggressive buying is not in response to strong upward momentum. Instead, it suggests early positioning or accumulation behavior, where market participants enter ahead of a potential directional move rather than following the price.
Still, derivatives-driven optimism alone is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. For Ethereum to move from a recovery to a sustained rally, this improvement in aggressiveness must be accompanied by a decisive recovery of stronger spot demand and higher resistance levels.
Derivatives become more aggressive, but confirmation remains important
The analysis adds that historically, sustained periods of Ethereum’s taker/buy ratio above 1 (especially when reinforced by rising moving averages) often coincide with periods of bullish volatility or an early attempt at a trend reversal.
This action reflects a growing sense of urgency among buyers to execute at market prices rather than wait for a rebound, a move that is typically associated with improving sentiment and changing expectations.
However, there is an important caveat to this signal. Taker buy/sell ratio is an indicator primarily focused on derivatives, and increased buying pressure in leveraged markets does not automatically lead to sustained upside.
Without confirmation from the spot market, such as increased spot trading volumes, net foreign exchange outflows, and continued on-chain accumulation, price reactions from derivatives activity can quickly dissipate. In the past, leveraged positioning created a temporary upside move that was later unwound when real capital inflows failed to materialize.
Currently, this structure suggests that active buying pressure is indeed building within the Ethereum derivatives market. This increases the likelihood of a recovery attempt, especially if the trader continues to take positions proactively rather than reactively.
Still, confirmation will depend on price follow-through above key resistance levels and consistency with broader metrics across spot demand, on-chain activity, and market-wide liquidity.
Ethereum price faces significant test
Ethereum has pushed back above the $3,000 level, providing a short-term relief rebound after weeks of compression and falling highs. However, broader structures remain fragile. On the daily chart, ETH is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to act as dynamic resistance and define a general bearish-to-neutral trend.
Recent moves seem more corrective than impulsive. The price movement has had shallow follow-through and limited volume expansion, suggesting buyers are cautious rather than aggressive. While reclaiming $3,000 is symbolically important, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to build acceptance beyond this zone since November, reinforcing its position as a pivot rather than firm support.
From a structural perspective, ETH is still trapped in a wide range between around $2,800 and $3,400. There is some bullish buying at the lower end, but the rally continues to stall before reaching the previous breakdown level. This pattern reflects a balanced market where neither bulls nor bears have enough confidence to force a trend.
Momentum indicators implied by price movements indicate stabilization rather than trend reversal. For Ethereum to return to a sustained upward trend, it will need to regain the $3,300-$3,500 region and maintain above its long-term moving average while increasing trading volume.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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