The Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market fear and greed index produced by CryptoQuant Explorer fell to 5 points over the weekend.
This is the worst investor sentiment in four years since the crypto winter of 2022. It’s also one of the scariest states in market history, but it then rebounded slightly over the weekend, reaching 8 points as of this writing on Monday, February 16, 2026.
Similar levels existed only in times of great tensionthe bottom of the bear market in 2018, the decline before the start of the pandemic in 2020, the impact of the closure of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in 2022, etc.
On a scale of 0 to 100, levels above 80 on this index reflect extreme greed in the Bitcoin market. On the other hand, a number below 20 indicates extreme fear.
“This shows that this is not a light precaution. “This is a mentality of surrender,” emphasizes George Tung, an investor best known on social networks as CryptosRus. “From a behavioral perspective, this amounts to classic loss aversion,” he noted in a Feb. 15 post.
What does this feeling consist of? “After a sharp decline, investors prefer safety and delay re-entries to wait for confirmation. Sentiment typically lags price. Even after markets stabilize, confidence rebuilds slowly,” the analyst says.
In this scenario, we have a fear index and a greed index that indicate extreme fear, but not at as low a level as CryptoQuant. CoinMarketCap has a level of 12, while Coinglass has a level of 11, with both reaching a score of 5 on different dates in February.
Each of these indicators measures market sentiment based on a variety of data, including volatility, futures markets, and messages on social networks. However, CryptoQuant does not make it clear exactly what elements are needed to perform the calculation.
High selling pressure despite no “catastrophe”
Lowest point on fear and greed index These typically coincide with major sales and purchase opportunities.. These periods occur before Bitcoin’s big long-term gains.
Although “extreme fear does not guarantee immediate recovery,” it has historically marked “the early stages of the fear process.” bottoming out«CryptosRus is explained. This concept refers to a recalibration of investors’ positions and expectations.
“When crowds focus on avoiding further pain rather than pursuing upside potential, markets often end up closer to depletion than expansion. That feeling fades, and a new cycle quietly begins from there,” he explains.
Anyway, Extreme fear does not mean Bitcoin cannot fall in price. In fact, the market always reaches its winter bottom in cryptocurrencies not when it is in this state, but sometimes after not at extreme fear levels.
Other crypto winters have seen retail panic prevail due to catastrophic events such as the FTX bankruptcy and the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the current extreme fear would not arise in the face of a panorama of such magnitude.
Instead, there has been a recalibration of investors’ positioning in different contexts. Among them, macroeconomic uncertainties and four-year historical patterns that can influence market sentiment stand out.
History says 2026 will be bearish for Bitcoin
Bitcoin could turn bearish in 2026 if the classic four-year pattern continues. Bitcoin always reaches the end of its uptrend the year after the halving. This can be seen below.
The most recent halving, which halves the amount of BTC issued every four years, was in 2024. The price is currently trading around $68,000 (USD), 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025.
Historically, crypto winters have seen prices drop by around 80%. However, each has minor modifications. In this sense, BTC’s decline in this cycle may not be over yetHowever, it is less severe than before.
James Ford, economist and director of investment group Pragmatic Investor, said: 75% drop from historical maximum is achievable. CriptoNoticias reports that the price will be less than $40,000.
However, it is important to note that there is no guarantee that past events will repeat themselves. In fact, various analysts claim that BTC’s crypto winter could be milder due to the presence of institutional investment, which was not present before.