Fidelity’s Julian Timmer said Bitcoin may have completed another halving in both price and time, placing support in the $65,000 to $75,000 zone.
While sharing the “Bitcoin Analogs” chart, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro wrote:
“While I remain bullish on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may be past another four-year halving cycle, both in price and time.”
He added that October’s high near $125,000 is consistent with a historic bull market, and that 2026 could potentially be a “year-long break” as “Bitcoin’s winter has lasted about a year.”
Bitcoin lookalikes hint at late-cycle cooling phase as time catches up with price
This chart breaks down Bitcoin’s history into bullish (green blocks) and drawdown (red blocks) regimes, then overlays the “top analogs” of previous cycles (particularly 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle rallies tend to roll into cooling periods.
Its central message is that the time factor is in step with the price factor.
Timmer’s judgment is tied to both the uptrend period and the peak level, as previous peaks were concentrated in the top window, followed by a retracement phase that could last nearly a year.
This configuration overlaps with the late-cycle framework demonstrated in cryptoprune’s cycle clock analysis. The framework tracked the 2025 peak window by applying prior halving-to-peak timing (approximately 526 days after the 2016 halving and approximately 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s October 6 print price was near $126,200, arriving within the projected window.
The follow-through and broader trade then stalled, with major support around $108,000.
In recent tapes, we tested whether the post-peak phase is transitioning into a deeper reset.
The liquidity and positioning lead noted that Bitcoin fell to around $99,075 on November 4th, and described the move as a structural reset amid tight liquidity and a weak appetite to remain leveraged long.
The report quotes CheckOnChain estimating that there will be about $34 billion in sell-side pressure each month as older coins return to exchanges and demand slows.
It also highlighted the concentration of the cost base, with about 63% of invested capital valued at $95,000 or more, with level traders monitoring holder actions and feedback loops from forced sales.
Signs of a post-peak reset and how severe it could get
Mr. Timmer’s $65,000 to $75,000 band also falls within the drawdown calculation shown in cryptoprune’s bare band model.
The framework notes that previous bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of about 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
And they argue that ETFs and deeper derivatives could change the trajectory, leaving room for significant downside.
Using a 35% to 55% drawdown band from $126,272 gives us a trough zone around $82,000 to $57,000, which is a bracket that includes a timmer support zone and is tied to a transparent range rather than a single target target.
The same calculation implies a lower period that could be reached by late 2026 to early 2027 if the reset follows historical period bands.
| 2026 scenario | how it looks | price range | what to see |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off Year” Winter (Timer) | Range trading, high price decline, core of liquidation | $75,000 to $65,000 (within drawdown band of ~$82,000 to $57,000) | ETF flows vary from negative to negative, repeated support tests, tight liquidity |
| shallow reset | Drawdown and unstable base building | Upper half of ~$82,000-$57,000 band, trending toward mid-$60,000 | Outflows stabilize, real yields ease, forced sellers decline |
| Tail risk deleveraging | The story of stress takes hold and you immediately relax. | Below the band is a $49,000 printout with a summary of the downside paper | Sustained demand weakness, increased foreign exchange inflows, and reduced risk appetite |
| cycle extension | Re-acceleration after recovering a broken level | Exceeds previous range and challenges post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal due to flow and breakout behavior, weakening selling pressure |
The biggest question is whether the four-year template remains a viable baseline, or whether the market structure is diluting it.
In a comment on the cycle’s weakening influence, Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argued that ETFs, broader institutional access, and regulatory advances have reduced the boom-and-bust mechanisms that once defined the cycle.
He expects ETF-led adoption to play out over time, a view that conflicts with the idea of designating 2026 as an “off year.”
Why 2026 Macro Background Could Turn ETF Flows into Bitcoin’s Dominant Price Driver
Even if cycle timing weakens, macro conditions can still shape the path as they influence ETF flow behavior.
In its 2026 macro outlook, Bank of America’s base scenario of a 2.4% U.S. real GDP growth rate in 2026 and an easing of the interest rate system toward the mid-3% range by the end of 2026 are cited as being behind the ability to keep real yields slightly positive.
The same article noted that Bitcoin ETFs can fluctuate by more than $1 billion in a single day, making ETF flows the primary transmission channel for yields and a shift toward spot demand for the dollar.
Looking ahead to 2026, near-term decision-making points will center on where holder and flow support meet.
The $95,000 cost base shelf forms the initial stress test framework for positioning, while the $76,000 support map sits near the top of Timmer’s band and inside the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framework is that if the last phase ends in both price and time, the next phase will be a winter lasting about a year, with support centered in the $65,000-75,000 range.