Bitcoin (BTC) prices could be fired in the coming months due to increased global liquidity and macroeconomic dynamics between China and the US.
According to analyst and trader Juan Villaverde, two possible scenarios profile the bullish future of digital currency. If governments of both countries reach a commercial agreement, they could be up to $150,000.
Global Liquidity: Rise Engine
Villaverde highlights the sustained growth of global liquidity since the beginning of 2025, without any significant signals.
This phenomenon he explains, Bitcoin market and cryptocurrency tend to affect delays of around 3 months.
“Bitcoin barely touched on the background,” analysts say. Analysts foresee a “popular increase” in June, giving months of bullish impulses.
A graph comparing global liquidity (black line) and Bitcoin (red line) prices shows this trend.
Liquidity continues to grow, but Bitcoin is barely beginning to recover, It suggests that rebound has space to grow. However, this impulse is not exempt from macroeconomic risks.
Shadow of commercial war
The escalation of commercial tensions between the US and China adds uncertainty to global markets.
In February 2025, after assuming a presidency, Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise, imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian products, and 10% imposed tariffs from China.
China, accordingly 15% and 10% tariffs have been applied to US goodsCoal, oil, agricultural products, etc. will be held on February 10th.
The conflict did not stop there. Mutual tariffs intensified in March and April.reached 145% in the US and 125% in China.
This commercial war Generates supply chain volatility, inflation and disruption. The 90-day temporary suspension was agreed to tariffs on other countries, and dialogue with more than 60 countries began, but the uncertainty persists.
Bitcoin: Evacuation against the Storm
The effects of these tensions were reflected in the price of Bitcoin. In April, when Trump announced mutual tariffs, the digital currency fell to $74,000.
However, his perception of being an active shelter promoted a rapid recovery. On the same day, the price reached $78,000, and on April 24th, he quoted $91,000. On the current day, it is quoted at $96,300.
Villaverde compares this dynamic with 2021. Global liquidity grew until March 2022, but when Bitcoin began to fall in November 2021 For expectations of Federal Reserve fees. In 2025, the key factor is not the rate, but the rate of change in the Chinese Yuan.
China’s “Pain Threshold”
China is facing a deflationary crisis similar to the 2008 Western crisis. To counter it, the popular Bank of China (PBOC) was able to print billions of yuan, which would significantly weaken the currency of the global market, a scenario that Beijing is trying to avoid.
Villaverde identifies “pain thresholds” between 7,30 and 7,35 yuan per dollar. China’s level of stopping financial impressions to protect its currency.
The previous graph shows that the yuan exchange rate against the dollar has recently fluctuated, approaching 7,30-7.35 yuan per dollar. According to Villaverde, this level has been a red line for Beijing since 2022, and has been suspended in currency printing to stabilize the currency. Graf also points out that “the enhanced original would unlock billions of liquidity dollars worldwide.” What happens if China and the US reach an agreement to allow a controlled devaluation of the dollar against the yuan?.
This intermittent policy in China has also impacted the Bitcoin market and cryptocurrency. Villaverde notes that after the lowest price of Bitcoin in November 2022, a long-term suspension was observed following a vibrant rebound, reflecting fluctuations in financial printing in China over that period. The current graph does not cover that moment, but shows how “pain threshold” is related in 2025. Tariff uncertainty and the possibility of commercial warfare add complexity to this panorama.
Two Bitcoin scenarios
Villaverde raises two possible outcomes for Bitcoin. First, If three-digit tariffs continue, the original will not recover. Global liquidity growth stagnates And cryptocurrency Mercado loses its power.
in this case, Bitcoin could reach $110,000 in January last year, exceeding its previous maximum.
The second scenario is whether Washington and Beijing will reach a contract. This is to allow a dominant devaluation of the dollar against the yuan. China was able to print the yuan on a large scale to save the banking system. This injects billions of dollars into the global economy and drives digital assets. Under these conditions, Villa Verde estimates that Bitcoin will reach at least $150,000 in October 2025which could overcome that number.
Bitcoin has been integrated as a shelter in the face of uncertainty, but investors are carefully observing negotiations between China and the US. As Villaverde points out, “this is beginning to get interesting.” The results of this commercial plot can define not only the price of Bitcoin, but also courses for the global market over the coming months.
