FTX Recovery Trust confirmed on May 30, 2025 that a second fund distribution will begin to qualify creditors in accordance with the reorganization plan under Chapter 11.
In total, Over $5,000 million will be released Through user-selected distribution suppliers: Bitgo or Kraken.
But this is not just judicial news or administrative procedures in a long saga of collapsed exchanges. actually, It could be one of the most important catalysts for Bitcoin prices this quarter. because? Because a significant portion of that money could be reversed with Bitcoin (BTC) or cryptocurrency, as it is in the hands of users who are disappointed in the exchange and want a second chance.
Mountains of fluidity on the road
The size of the refund is important. This represents one of the biggest redistributions to private hands in the history of the digital asset ecosystem.
This process is not carried out through traditional bank checks or deposits; Funds will be sent directly to your Kraken or Bitgo accounta platform that promotes immediate access to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.
Official statements make it clear when you choose «Distribution Service Providers«, creditors may resign from receiving cash directly and instead choose and dispose of funds sent to these exchanges or custodian accounts, freely dispose of them there.
And here is where an interesting opportunity arises. Those who receive those funds are already within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, many of which can take advantage of the time they spend investing in Bitcoin again.
It’s not unreasonable to think that a significant portion of these $5,000 million will end up in BTC. In fact, in previous cycles, judicial distributions or large returns (although Mt. Gox, etc., are not yet at all) have been viewed as events that have a potential impact on sales pressure or, as in this case, sales pressure.
Unlike Mt. Gox, this time it could be bullish.
One of the major concerns that normally circulates such mass returns is fear of sales pressure. However, this case has characteristics that are essentially differentiated from other similar processes. Funds are returned in dollars, not in bitcoin. And it corrects the incentive.
Furthermore, this money flow is a particularly favorable context for Bitcoin. It’s not just a return to justice. It is an injection of liquidity into the market at the time of a bullish narrative, reinforced by macroeconomic and technical factors.
Bitcoin has been doing historic biggest for several daysand there are several reasons why I think I can overcome it soon.
One of the most relevant factors is the commercial agreement (ceasefire) between the US and China. This began to reduce the tensions created by the tariff war, as reported by the encryption. This geopolitical turn not only improves the global macroeconomic perspective, but also returns appetite due to the risks of financial markets in general and cryptocurrency markets in particular.
In parallel, Bitcoin prices have gone through the acceleration phase typical of post-harving cycles. As documented in previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), Bitcoin tends to enter the parabolic phase after half 6-18 months, with price increases in some cases exceeding 500%. The latest half happened in April 2024, so I’m just inside that golden window.
And now more than $5,000 million will arrive at user cryptocurrency accounts who may want to take advantage of this new upward wave, as if they need a lot of fuel to feed that rocket.
How much does this affect price?
Not all money is invested in Bitcoin (some users withdraw funds, others move and diversify them). For example, even at a relatively low percentage, 10% of the funds represent an infusion of $500 million. of potential demand.
In a market where daily liquidity is limited and BTC circulation is increasingly retained by long-term holders, this type of revenue can drive prices significantly.
Furthermore, the fact that the distribution is shifted, and the fact that users start receiving funds between May 30th and the first day of June suggest that the effect may be extended for several weeks rather than immediate.
It is also important to take market psychology into consideration. This announcement of returns could already be interpreted as a positive signal by investors, encouraging an early accumulation of BTC before new buyers arrive.
