After the impulses that occurred at the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed), Bitcoin reached a maximum of $117,000 before entering the corrective phase. The movement responds to the classic “buy rumors and sell news.”
The currently open discussion is whether this set-off reflects healthy integration or is it a prelude to a deeper revision?
Adjusted from $124,000 per Bitcoin from a historical maximum of $124,000 to $113,700 It’s only 8%, a relatively mild drop compared to previous cuts It reached 28% in this same cycle, or 60% in previous stages.
“This behavior is consistent with background trends. Each cycle shows a decline in volatility, similar to the constant progress between 2015 and 2017,” said GlassNode, a signature of analysis and market research.
Regarding the correction period, the current trajectory remains intimately consistent with the previous two cycles. If the global maximum is confirmed at $124,000, this cycle will last about 1,030 days, The numbers are very close to the previous 1, 060 days. “The maximum yield decreases over time, but the temporary structure of the market is consistent,” GlassNode says.
Beyond prices, the analysis highlights the size of capital tickets. The capital letters reflecting the net capital absorbed by the network, with 6780 million tickets in this cycle, reaching $1.06 billion, 1.8 times the previous cycle. “The capital flow is three distinct waves since November 2022, confirming the historical magnitude of this phase,” the study states.
Profit (i.e., selling bitcoin in exchange for fíat money) was also important. Every time more than 90% of the mobile currency is profiting, a periodic ceiling is marked. This adds the role of long-term holders. They have already made it with a profit of 3.4 million btcovercome all previous cycles.
Another important factor is the interaction between the distribution of long-term holders (LTH) and institutional demand via Bitcoin via ETF. ETF tickets absorbed most of the offers released, The balance is fragile. “After the Fed meeting, LTH sales rose to 122,000 BTC per month, while the net flow of the ETF has dropped to near zero,” the report warns.
In that order of ideas, GlassNode points out that there is “strip and loosening” between long-term BTC holders who distribute institutional and demand through ETFs.
“The gain on LTH limits the rise, and the ETF input absorbs the distribution and supports cycle progression,” explains GlassNode.
The analytics company responds to the expected patterns of set-off after the Fed’s decision, The widest structure shows increased fatigue.
“Unless the demand for institutions and holders is again matched, the risk of deeper cooling remains high,” GlassNode said.
The company also highlights the options market being actively revalued, highlighting an increased downward bias and increased demand for defensive compensation. In this scenario, “the macroeconomic context suggests an increasingly exhausted market.”
Visions of other experts
Daniel Andre Peraes, a Venezuelan investor and cryptocurrency expert, believes it will reinvigorate the demand for Bitcoin. In his opinion, “Demand is already increasing due to ETFs, corporate adoptions and institutions,” he told Cryptonoths.
Peraes points out that Companies are buying Bitcoin in a sustainable way and increasing exposure to ETFs. “They are planning to buy and will add global factors such as the Fed rate, Chinese and European markets where liquidity is injected,” he explains.
In his opinion, “all that supports risky assets, and in this case, Bitcoin’s profits.”
Looking at the last quarter, Peraes predicts a positive closure. “I think it’s going to be a rather volatile fourth quarter, but I think it’s definitely bullish.” For him, the price rank is probably USD 175,000-250,000 per BTC by the end of this year.
He warns of excessive expectations, but some say «Bitcoin could reach $500,000. It seems to me that there is too much, which is rather called the fear of staying outside (FOMO)».
On his side, Thomas Field, the public relations manager for Argentine exchange lemons, believes it The waterfalls that BTC held are “part of the dynamics of the volatile market.” Do not change the basis of the assets.
The executive highlighted this useful portal. Despite the revision, the price emphasized that “is only 10% below its historic maximum in a favorable macroeconomic scenario characterized by greater global liquidity and increased expectations of reducing new feats in the United States this year.”
His analysis states, “Historically, these factors drive new increases and reinforce the vision that long-term trends remain bullish.”
Conflict scenario
Looking at the above, the Bitcoin market faces mixed signal. Without new demand, there is a high risk of cooling and fatigue. And at the same time, The basic factors support currency and point to a positive year.
Therefore, the outcome of this film depends on whether the buyer is absorbing the offer released by the long-term holder. Otherwise, test the upward resistance of BTC and open the road for greater compensation.