Long-term holders have sold approximately 183,000 bitcoins in the past 30 days. This involved approximately 8,000 BTC in one session to track on-chain data, track long-term supply, and track output used daily.
With each change in Cryptoquant’s 30-day long-term holder net position, the cohort’s monthly balance decreases are in line with the wave of short distributions, and GlassNode’s used volume measurements show the largest one-day LTH movement since the beginning of the year in early September.
At the same time, coin stocks with low historical trends are generally framed as Il-fluid supplyIt reached a record of approximately 14.3 million BTC in late August. GlassNode’s liquidity classification involves these coins with entities that have rarely been spent in the past.
In other words, the distribution from older wallets coincided with deeper storage by holders who rarely trade.
Spot Flow Bitcoin ETF adds another layer. According to Sosovalue’s integrated dashboard, US products posted sharp daily intakes on September 10th.
Farside Investors’ running tables show the same pattern when aggregating daily prints across the complex. As demand for primary markets rose simultaneously, a circular frame with old coins re-entered replayed a simple absorption test. The buyer takes the other side or not.
Methodology is important for interpreting numbers
Changes in the LTH net position calculate the 30-day change in supply held by long-term holders. This is a negative read for the past month, totaling around 183,000 BTC.
Cryptoquant’s daily “used” measured the number of coins that had moved into the chain on a particular day, creating a burst of early September.
Both datasets define cohorts using a 155-day retention threshold and are adjusted to reduce the double counting of entities. However, the first one tracks changes in the rolling balance and the second transfer volume.
Cycle contexts help you make the move. In the previous bull stage, long-term wallets tended to distribute intensively, but new demand absorbed the absorbed supply, and then the trend was reasserted after the decline in selling pressure. GlassNode’s Week On-Chain Series documented these handoffs, including cycle distribution regimes and episodes that earn profits on new highs.
These windows did not complete the cycle by default. They coincided with local peaks that had been resolved after the fresh capital intervened and noticed that capital letters had risen.
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The current setup shares some of these features. The rarely moved coin sits at the highest ever, pointing to the base of a large hand with low turnover, but a separate pocket of old supply hits tapes for the past month.
As ETF allocation continues to create incremental bids, the balance of these two forces appears quickly in realized flow, exchange balance, and short-term holder positioning. As absorbent lenses are mechanical and the issuance is fixed, the question is whether primary market buyers, OTC desks, and shorter tenure wallets neutralize the released inventory.
Three markers determine how this resolves.
First, a change in LTH net position returning to zero or positive indicates that the heavily distributed month has cooled.
Second, width and persistence across ETF issuers would argue for more durable key market demand, which can flow into IBIT, FBTC, BITB and ARKB on the same day rather than a single fund carrying tape, for example, and can be tracked via Farside issuer failure or Sosovalue.
Third, profitability metrics for older coins such as LTH-SOPR can reveal whether the seller does so with profit and is inactive or if the price bounces back, further supply will emerge.
A quick look back provides useful boundaries
GlassNode’s Avoid distribution stages LTH spending spikes often show that they gather near local highs, fading as new hands absorb stock. A key difference in 2025 is the presence of spot ETFs as standing buyers, a structural feature that is not present in previous cycles and can be monitored daily through publisher flow disclosures.
If these flows are held, if the non-current supply continues to expand, the effect is closer and tradeable float even after the old coins have moved. If these flows are rolling over, the market has additional stock that needs to be cleared at a low price while the LTH distribution continues.
For readers who track this in real time, use simple overlays, 30-day net changes from encryption, Daily US Spot ETF Net flows from Sosovalue or Farside, and pricing. The session in early September will add a flag with the largest LTH-used print of the year. Annotations will be added in late August to mark a non-current supply of nearly 14.3 million BTC. Color is optional, and clarity is not. The key is to see if the next set of buyers will absorb the long decorative wallet released.
Short-term reads are data dependent. The next few daily ETF prints and the next monthly LTH balance changes indicate whether the 187,000 BTC distribution has been absorbed.
