- Bitcoin drops to a four-month low of $74,500 amid Trump’s tariff-driven market wipeout.
- Technical analysis warns of a potential decline of $69,000 if 50 weeks of EMA support fails.
- The historic pattern suggests a $50,000 target if Bitcoin enters the long-term bear market.
Bitcoin fell to its four-month low of $80,134, which is currently trading at $74,500, as investors dumped risky assets after President Donald Trump pushed new global tariffs over the weekend.
The move caused a staggering $9.5 trillion wipeout in the global stock market, raising concerns about the possibility of a US recession.
The decline of Cryptocurrency reflects a wider sale, along with Crypto market capitalization, the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index over the past year, according to TradingView data.
Risk investors look creepy, leaving participants in the Crypto market uncertainly as to how far Bitcoin prices will fall in the near future.
The technical level indicates a potential deeper correction
Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical threshold: the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA).
Market analyst Ted Pillow and other chartists suggest that Bitcoin must now regain an EMA close to $77,500 to avoid a deeper fix.
Otherwise, the price could drop towards the $69,000-70,000 range, coinciding with the 2021 cycle highs and another $67,000 (Michael Saylor’s average entry level).
The weekly BTC/USD price chart highlights this vulnerability.
Meanwhile, the $74,000 short-term support covers cost-base clusters that hold over 50,000 BTC. These holders who have stopped moving coins since March 10th show confidence rather than panic.
$69,000 appears as the “maximum pain” target, $50,000 possible
Investors have around 175,000 BTC in the $74,000-$70,000 range, with the largest cluster holding 41,000 BTC of $71,600, providing potential buffers for a $74,000 break.
GlassNode’s Short Term Holder (STH) brings the current average STH cost base to $89,000, with the -1 standard deviation band placing a $69,000 – a historic “maximum pain” zone where short-term investors surrender during pullbacks. According to GlassNode data, this level often encouraged long-term investors to intervene.
The historic pattern shows that a critical break below the 50-week EMA could lead to a long-term bear market, driving Bitcoin to a 200-week EMA, which is currently around $50,000.
The BTC/USD weekly price chart shows his risk, but no conclusive bottom has been confirmed.
