The horizon for Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to be defined in terms of institutional methodology. As the global financial ecosystem seeks a safe haven from currency devaluation, CF Benchmarks has released its 10-year Bitcoin price forecast.
The company believes that Bitcoin not only competes for a piece of global capital; However, it is positioned as an essential element for the efficiency of investment portfolios. Through a framework that supports strategic and tactical investment perspectives.
CF Benchmarks bases its predictions on a comprehensive analysis system. This modeling framework Supports long-term price target of $1.42 million per Bitcoin by 2035«Driven by capturing approximately one-third of the growing global reserves-of-value market, as seen in the image below.
At the same time, we predict volatility will continue to decline structurally, declining towards 28% over the next decade as liquidity increases, institutional investor participation expands, and derivatives markets mature. ”
The model’s architecture is based on comparative valuation, production economics, and BTC’s sensitivity to currency devaluation.
“The combination of high expected returns, moderate volatility, and persistently low correlation makes Bitcoin an attractive option for multi-asset portfolios,” according to the report.
According to a survey of institutional investors, the majority of investors, according to CF Benchmark We believe in the long-term value of blockchain and digital assetsand a significant proportion plan to increase their allocation to crypto assets and related products over the next two years.
Multi-asset portfolio efficiency
Research highlights that Incorporating Bitcoin into a diversified portfolio should not be considered a speculative bet.. This analysis makes sense after observing the market movement in which Bitcoin reached a historic high of $126,000 last October, just consolidating its structural uptrend, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
“Even at a 2-5% portfolio weight, Bitcoin improves long-term risk-adjusted returns and extends the frontier of efficiency.”
The methodology applied suggests that prudence is key in institutional investment strategies. “The goal is not to risk everything, but to test whether moderate allocation can improve long-term risk-adjusted results under reasonable assumptions.”
Regarding the size of positions within the fund, the firm notes that 5% of Bitcoin is “large enough to accommodate strong upswings, but small enough to keep downsides manageable within a multi-asset framework, especially with disciplined rebalancing.”
This structure allows capital managers to reduce risk while exposing capital to BTC growth, as predicted in the institutional scenario modeling below. The gold-based scenario (orange and turquoise) is the most ambitious and positions Bitcoin as a direct competitor to gold as a store of value.
Bitcoin price scenario for 10 years
This report breaks down three possible scenarios for Bitcoin valuation. The base case described above sets a target of $1.42 million by 2035. This framework means that Bitcoin accounts for approximately 33% of gold’s market capitalization.
on the other hand, In the bearish case, the price will be $637,000 by 2035.. In this context, digital currencies are “gaining store of value market share at historically trending rates, reaching around 16% of gold’s market capitalization, with slow but sustained adoption.”
Finally, the Bull Case projects it to $2.95 million by 2035, a scenario in which “Bitcoin becomes the world’s primary store of value, absorbing investment flows from gold and reaching approximately 125% of market capitalization as adoption by institutional investors and governments accelerates.”
To understand the magnitude of these predictions, it is essential to visualize the upward trajectory that assets would follow under different implementation frameworks, as seen in the graph.
In any scenario, Strategic allocation increases efficiency. CF Benchmarks said, “In our simulations, Bitcoin’s higher expected returns, lower volatility, and lower correlation to stocks and bonds widen the efficient frontier, making it possible to achieve higher return targets at similar or lower risk levels.”