IONQ Technology Company announced its ambitious goals on June 9th. By 2030, it announced that it will build a quantum computer with 2 million physical qubits and 80,000 logical qubits (qubitsin English). A day later, one of the historic pillars of global technology, IBM presented a roadmap for developing “the first large quantum computer and failure resistance” with 200 logical qubits by 2029.
Also, according to IBM’s statement, Quantum Computer can lay the foundations and implement the future quantum blue Jay. 1 billion operations 2,000 logical cubits On the horizon even without a defined date.
These advancements, which were added to what was made by the Oxford University group, were promoted for science, drug elaboration, fundraising or security, but also encourage discussion within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Do these machines represent a threat to network safety?
Experts’ estimates on quantum and bitcoin
X-user known as tech enthusiast Borovik said it will be necessary after the launch of the Willo Roll Willow Quantum chip in December. 13 million to 1.9 billion physical cubits Compromising Bitcoin within a practical period».
Along the same line, but referring to the Bitcoin Mining Base, the SHA-256 algorithm, Cryptootics calculates that 317 million physical qubits are needed to break it.
The relationship between physical and logical qubits is not fixed, but generally accepted criteria take that into account 100-1,000 physical qubits for building logical qubitsdepending on the technology and efficiency of error correction.
This distinction is important. Because most analysts who evaluate the quantum threat of Bitcoin speak from a physical qubit standpoint, IBM and IONQ The logical qubit stands out in its predictionsa conversion is required to compare both scenarios.
On his side, Blockstream co-founder Adam Back has approximated “300 million physical qubits” is needed A survey from the University of Sussex also calculated that 13 million physical qubits would be sufficient to decipher Bitcoin encryption in one day. Other reports are consistent with those raised by Sussex.
But Charles Edwards, founder of financial company Capriol, offered a more surprising perspective. In December, he said that “To break the SHA-256 algorithm with Bitcoin, 2,500 logical qubits may be enough.”rebutting higher estimates from other experts.
Edwards added that “error corrections improve exponentially each year,” adding that while the exact deadline is uncertain, there is “a serious risk of 50% of Bitcoin over 5-10 years.” For him, the urgency lies in taking action today to prepare the network before this threat. Following Edwards, scientist Anastasia Marchenkova also points out 2,500 logic qubits.
So is Bitcoin security at risk for Quantum?
To compare these estimates with IBM and IONQ ADS, you need to convert physical qubits to logical qubits.
Using the most optimistic transformation (100 physical qubits per logical qubit), the 13 million physical qubits mentioned by Borovik and the University of Sussex correspond to 130,000 logical qubits, and 300 million bucks are converted to 3 million logical qubits.
These figures are significantly larger than IBM’s 200 logical qubits by 2029 or 80,000 IONQ by 2030, according to these approaches: The danger is still far away.
However, Edwards’ estimated logic qubits of 2,500 are far closer to what IBM is planning to achieve in just four years, suggesting that risks can be realized faster than other analysts have planned.
Bitcoin-supported encryption based on the ECDSA algorithm (digital signature algorithm for elliptic curves) protects the private key that guarantees the wealth of the funds.
However, quantum computing, which has the ability to solve complex mathematical problems at unattainable speeds of classical computers, is, in theory, I will decrypt this encryption in the future.
Conveniently, the Bitcoin ecosystem is taking steps to face quantum threats. For example, a Chilean developer proposed in April 2025. Hard fork (hard branch) Implement addresses based on secondary perspective encryptionECDSA algorithm replacement.
Bitcoin Libre CEO Ben Sigman said the proposal to improve the BIP-360 will strengthen Bitcoin’s resistance to advances in quantum computing.