Ethereum is once again struggling to regain the $3,000 level, highlighting the fragile state of the market as selling pressure continues to weigh on price trends. After multiple failed attempts to move higher, ETH remains below key resistance levels, reflecting widespread uncertainty and lack of conviction among both traders and long-term investors.
Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, participants remain hesitant to deploy new capital, and apathy and fear dominate positioning. The current environment indicates exhaustion and indecision rather than active surrender, which are common characteristics of late-cycle adjustment stages.
According to recent reports, XWIN Research Japan on CryptoQuantEthereum is currently in a late-stage bear phase and appears to be moving into a more range-bound structure. Although bearish pressure still dominates the overall trend, the nature of selling activity is changing.
Instead of panic-induced sharp declines, the market is experiencing a slower, more systematic distribution, suggesting that many weak hands may have already exited. This change often marks an important inflection point where volatility is compressed and prices stabilize within a defined range.
report They point out that such stages usually reflect the market searching for equilibrium. While this does not guarantee an immediate recovery, it does indicate that the downside momentum may be slowing. The next few weeks will be decisive for Ethereum in determining whether this range develops into a recovery base or resolves to another low.
Ethereum’s on-chain structure improves as prices continue to slump
Although Ethereum continues to struggle below key resistance levels, on-chain indicators suggest that the underlying market structure may be gradually improving. Data shows that ETH is exiting exchanges at the fastest pace this cycle, with this movement increasingly associated with self-custody, staking, and long-term holdings rather than short-term trading activity.
This change is powered by validator queue dynamics. For the first time in six months, the entry queue exceeds the exit queue, with around 745,000 ETH waiting to be staked, while around 360,000 ETH is waiting to be withdrawn. This imbalance points to new staking participation and a tight medium- to long-term supply profile.
Additional context comes from the 90-day Spottaker CVD. This indicates a transition from a strong selling situation to neutral pressure to mild positive pressure. This does not mean that prices will rebound soon, but it does suggest that the aggressive selling is starting to lose momentum.
That said, Ethereum ETF flows remain negative on both the daily and weekly periods, suggesting that institutional demand through financial products continues to weigh on price movements.
Beyond market trends, Ethereum network activity remains resilient. Deployed smart contracts reached a record 8.7 million in Q4 2025, and on-chain real-world asset value grew to approximately $19 billion, led by Ethereum. These trends indicate that usage-driven demand remains strong despite weak sentiment.
This data supports a scenario of continued price pressures with modest structural improvements. This valuation would weaken if currency balances rise again or sell-side flows become dominant again.
Price remains below major moving averages
Ethereum continues to trade in a tight consolidation around the $2,900-$3,000 zone, reflecting continued indecision after a sharp correction from the $4,800 cycle peak. This chart shows that ETH is struggling to regain its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, and is currently acting as dynamic resistance near the $3,200 to $3,600 area. Every attempt to move higher was met with selling pressure, reinforcing the broad bearish structure that has been in place since November.
From a trend perspective, the price remains below the downtrending short-term moving average, while the 200-day moving average near $3,500 continues to trend down. This configuration indicates that Ethereum is still trading in a correction phase rather than a confirmed recovery.
However, the momentum of the decline appears to be slowing. A series of recent rally lows around $2,750-$2,800 suggests that buyers are defending this range as a short-term demand zone.
Volume has also contracted during the recent consolidation, indicating that aggressive selling may be losing momentum. This is consistent with a broader narrative of exhaustion rather than renewed capitulation. Still, unless there is a decisive return to $3,200 and a move above the 50-day average, any upside bids remain vulnerable.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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