Into The Cryptoverse founder reveals characteristics that define a typical Bitcoin bear market and explains why $BTC It’s already one.
For Bitcoin kept slipping By 2026, it will remain below 45% today All-time high $126,000 And for the year, it’s down 20.5%, trading at about $69,500.
Despite the drop, most analysts argue that this is just a setback in a continuing bull market. However, Into the Cryptoverse (ITC) founder Benjamin Cowen disagrees, suggesting that Bitcoin has entered a full-blown bear market.
Important points
- Bitcoin has fallen 45% from its all-time high in the dollar126,000 and decreased by 20.5% 2026currently trading around $69,500.
- Despite the economic downturn, most analysts believe Bitcoin is facing a decline amid a bull market, but Benjamin Cowen disagrees.
- According to Cowen, Bitcoin typically spends a lot of time in an uptrend during a bear market.but If it goes down in a short period of time, drop It’s more than that powerful.
- Bitcoin rose 21.6% in 54 days from its November 2025 low, and crashed 38.8% in just 23 days, hitting a new low in February 2026.
- Cowen pointed to late March and April as a typical mid-term decline for Bitcoin, suggesting that the current bull market is likely to break in the coming months.
- While the February low in past bear market cycles has never signaled a macro bottom, Cowen believes the same could be true for the current February 2026 low of $59,930.
Actual behavior of a bear market
Market analysts have shared these details in their recent analysis. One of the most surprising things Cowen pointed out about the Bitcoin bear market is that the price actually spends more time rising than falling.
In a bear market, Bitcoin spends more time rising than falling.
When it does fall, it falls very quickly, hits a low, then trends upward for several weeks or months, and then falls.
You can see the change in market structure from bullish to bearish. pic.twitter.com/TrImvnF7rK
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 11, 2026
Bitcoin slowly rises for months at a time, then suddenly crashes to new lows within just a week or two. Panic prevails during the sell-off, while those who turned bullish near the top keep saying Investors buy on the spur of the moment. Remarkably, this pattern repeats until a new low pressure system forms and is eventually replaced by an even lower one.
Cowen used Bitcoin’s low price of $80,537, set on November 21, 2025, as an example. From that low, Bitcoin rose for about 54 days, reaching a local high of $97,939 on January 14, 2026, up 21.6% along the way.
It then crashed 38.8% in just 23 days. New low to $59,930 On February 6, 2026, all of the gains from those 54 days were wiped out, sending us down another 25% below the November 2025 low. Mr. Cowen pointed out the following about Bitcoin: moved up more than twice as long as that moved downbut still ended up with a lower price.
Bitcoin Support Team vs. Market Analyst
The ITC founder also identified a difference between what he calls price cheerleaders and those who actually read the market and try to manage risk.
He suggested that price cheerleaders remain bullish no matter what and that many mistake their relentless optimism for real analysis. According to him, long-term bitcoin bull market, And that buying at the bottom of a bear market and holding until the recovery is a perfectly reasonable approach.
The problem is when people fail to recognize that a bear market has arrived, and others rely on their cheerleading as if it were sound financial analysis.
Corroborating his concerns, Cowen pointed out that: measured against goldBitcoin is currently trading at the same valuation it had in December 2017, at the 14 ounce gold mark, one of its all-time highs at the time.
He said that someone who bought Bitcoin in 2017 simply While it has essentially broken even compared to gold for about a decade until 2026, stocks that sold at the end of the year after the halving took the lead.
Why Bitcoin’s structure signals a continued bear market
Additionally, Cowen revealed why he believes Bitcoin’s current structure resembles a bear market. Specifically, Bitcoin hit a low near $80,000 in November 2025 and trended upward for about two months before breaking down and finding support near $60,000 in February 2026.
Since then hit it $60,000 level, Bitcoin rises again, Cowen says same pattern play. He believes the current bull market is likely to break within the next few months, with a mid-term Bitcoin decline typically occurring around late March and April.
Then he said, showed how can this It was different From the structure of the bull market played out From 2023 to 2025 Bitcoin decreases repeatedly before shoot To new heights, completely opposite to what is happening now.
Citing historical data, Cowen also argued that the February low of $59,000 may not have represented a macro bottom. especially, $BTC We saw lows of $34,000 in February 2022, $5,921 in February 2018, and $400 in February 2014. In either case, the February low was not a macro bottom, and Bitcoin kept falling It is even lower in the second half of the cycle.
Bitcoin’s historic February lows | Benjamin Cowen