Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted to leverage in cross section, with derivatives now making up the majority of daily trading volume.
Data from Cryptoquant showed that the derivatives market consistently constituted more than 90% of total Bitcoin trading activity in 2025, pushing the average derivative to spot volume ratio to 13.2x YTD. This ratio peaked at 16.6× on May 6th, with Bitcoin closing nearly $96,800 on the same day.
The shift to derivatives accelerated sharply in March and April. Bitcoin prices fell to around $80,000 in late March and began climbing again in April, resulting in increased derivative flow and weaker spot activity.
The biggest difference in volume occurred on April 7th when the derivative reached a daily record of over 126 million BTC, even if the derivative failed to reach 30,000 BTC. From mid-February, spot turnover rates have been well below that level.
This matches the previous one Encryption The report found that the price recovery seen since February is not attributable to strong retail demand for new inflows or exchanges.
The data show a clear inverse relationship between leverage strength and price strength. The correlation between daily differential versus spot ratio and spot price for BTC is –0.40 YTD. In other words, periods of heavier derivative advantage are generally consistent with lower price performance.
This trend has been recurring throughout the year. In March and April, derivatives accounted for more than 95% of the total multiple times, following local top and retrace in Bitcoin prices.
Spot volumes have sometimes surpassed 100,000 BTC while Bitcoin pushed over $100,000 in January. Such a powerful spot volume has since disappeared. In April and May, even if prices were nearing previous highs, spot volumes remained slimy and rarely exceeded 20,000 BTC per day.
Aggregated volume data enhances this view. Between January 1st and May 6th, total sales amounted to just 4.15 million btc, while derivatives exceeded 55 million btc. Therefore, the futures market absorbs more than 92% of Bitcoin’s daily sales throughout the year.
The steady rise in the derivative/spot ratio reflects this market transformation in its leveraged-driven structure, from 11.27× in January to 13.77× in May. Volatility has been declining since March, but the rate of rise indicates a continuing dependence on margins and futures products for directional bets.
This type of structural imbalance poses a significant risk. As spot liquidity decreases, price discoveries become more sensitive to exploiting positioning, and funding rates and liquidation cascades can move the market far more than actual flows. A thin order for exchanges means that even small sales pressures can quickly slide prices, especially when common trading is busy on one side of the futures curve.
The lack of spot convictions could limit the benefits of Bitcoin, except for ETF influx or large on-chain accumulation resumes. So far, Spot Market’s actions suggest that most demand is synthetic and that the exchange barely sees actual buying pressure.
The market remains vulnerable until spot flows come with price strength. It’s very responsive, but supported by exposure rather than certainty.
Since January first appeared on Cryptoslate, post leverage outweighs liquidity as Bitcoin spot volume has dropped by 40%.
