The dominant narrative that Bitcoin whales are quietly hoarding BTC And the breakout readiness was upended by new on-chain analysis. tips Distributions among the largest holders continue, potentially weakening near-term bullish sentiment.
Despite recent headlines touting its magnitude; BTC Wallets are actively buying the push, and more detailed blockchain data reveals a more nuanced reality.
Julius Moreno, the platform’s head of research, warned that what appears to be whale accumulation is actually currency-related activity that inflates the perception of purchases. Exchanges frequently realign funds into other wallets, increasing the number of wallets with large balances.
Mr. Moreno commented on X as follows: “No, whales are not buying huge amounts of Bitcoin. BTC The whale data present in the market has been “affected” by exchanges consolidating many of their holdings into a smaller number of addresses with larger balances. This is why whales seem to be hoarding a lot of coins these days. ”
According to a report by a blockchain analysis firm, long-term Bitcoin holders, or wallets that held Bitcoin, BTC long term — reverted Internet distribution After a long accumulation phase.
Moreno says Bitcoin is still diversifying assets rather than accumulating them
Moreno noticed The adjusted data shows that large holders are still in dispersion mode rather than accumulation. The data also shows that the number of whales in stock continues to decline, with stocks of 100 to 1,000 whales decreasing. BTC This suggests that the outflow of addresses and ETFs continues.
Large holders typically change the price of Bitcoin significantly. However, the market structure is adapting with the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become substantial market participants. Apart from questions about whale accumulation, long-term people’s sentiments BTC The holder has improved as shown by other on-chain metrics.
Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said long-term Bitcoin holders are buying again after experiencing the biggest sell-off in years. This trend is due to recent selling pressure. BTC It may be starting to ease. Bitcoin’s recovery is still tentative, but the downward pressure so far has prevented the price from returning to the sub-$80,000 range seen in November. BTC is currently trading just above the $90,000 mark.
Nevertheless, Bollinger Bands, a key volatility indicator, suggest that a big price move may be imminent. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands (volatility bands set two standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average) have narrowed to below $3,500, the widest since July.
Back in late July, the Bollinger Bands squeeze capped a two-week consolidation between $115,000 and $120,000, marking the beginning of a three-month price expansion between $100,000 and $126,000. A similar pattern emerged in late February, with Bitcoin consolidating between $94,000 and $98,000 before falling to $80,000 due to Bollinger Band pressure.
Kim says Bitcoin will exceed $270,000 by February 2026
Kim, a social media prophet and self-proclaimed smartest man in the world, recently predicted: BTC It could exceed $270,000 within a month next year. According to the report, the forecaster cited both fiat currency growth and fragility as reasons for his optimistic outlook, pointing to Bitcoin’s historical volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.
The social media personality has made several Bitcoin predictions in the past that have not come true. In November, he promised that Bitcoin would more than double to $220,000 within 45 days and that future profits would be used to build a church, but the price surge never materialized.
In addition to his bullish remarks, Mr. Kim said: BTC It could be replaced by the US dollar by 2026, and the current low is seen as a short-term manipulated discount.