Forecast market data shows traders betting on the 2025 Bitcoin price to reach a level above $120,000.
The decentralized platform Polymarket has collected over $15.5 million in a market asking what price Bitcoin will win in 2025. Traders assign a 75% chance that their assets will exceed $120,000 by the end of the year.
This data provides a quantifiable view of market convictions and translates sentiment into financially supported probabilities.
The platform shows that Bitcoin has a 55% chance of over $130,000 and a 33% chance of breaking $150,000. More ambitious goals, such as $200,000, are given a 13% chance.
Another market focusing on terminology for the time being is more conservative. With an amount of over $3.5 million, the 58% chance of Bitcoin is allocated if it exceeds $115,000 by August 1, 2025, but there is a 30% chance of over $120,000 at the same time.
This activity is set against the backdrop of the important evolution of the polymer itself. According to data from Dune Analytics, the platform’s user base and volume expanded during the 2024 US election, reaching $2.6 billion per month in November 2024.
A new baseline for activities was established in the months following the election. Last month’s trading volume was $1.16 billion, more than nine times the volume recorded in June last year.
The number of active traders of 241,000 last month was more than seven times the previous year. This suggests that the platform retained a portion of the audience it acquired during the high-profile political events.
The configuration of platform activity appears to be changing. Since the peak of 455,000 active traders in January 2025, the number of participants has fallen by 47%.
In contrast, the amount of platforms has rebounded, increasing by 30% from April to June 2025. This difference may indicate the integration of activities among smaller groups of more capitalized or higher convicted traders.
The average volume per trader has recovered from a low of around $2,000 in February 2025 to about $4,800 in June 2025. This supports the idea that existing users are trading at larger sizes. Recent reports focus on the growth of the platform and its recent partnership with X. This is surrounded by the alliance of “The Top Truth-Seeking Apps” by Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket.
The forecast market offers a new form of sentiment analysis, but their predictions reflect current crowd-supported beliefs and are not specific outcomes.
The user base does not represent the broader financial world, and all markets have inherent risks, including the possibility of manipulation by actors with large amounts of capital. However, Polymet outperformed almost all traditional polling methods during the US 2025 election. Still, the regulatory environment for forecast markets remains complex Various jurisdictions, Among the latest $1 billion valuations, including the US itself.
Nevertheless, the substantial volume and clear directional probability on display provides a clear, data-driven perspective on where active traders expect Bitcoin prices to trends at $109,093 press time prices.
Bitcoin Market Data
When reporting 11:30am, UTC on July 4, 2025Bitcoin ranks number one in terms of market capitalization, and the price is under 0.75% Over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization 2.17 trillion dollars 24-hour trading volume $4.643 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin›
Overview of the Crypto Market
When reporting 11:30am, UTC on July 4, 2025Crypto market totals are evaluated by $3.35 trillion There is a 24-hour volume $1065.8 billion. Bitcoin’s advantage is currently underway 64.61%. Crypto Market Details›