Bitcoin is facing significant headwinds rooted in an increasingly dormant chain environment as it seeks to break the critical $95,000-$96,000 threshold.
Prices are optimistically approaching the $100,000 key barrier, but stagnant blockchain activity metrics indicate certain vulnerabilities that could further hinder them.
According to CheckonChain data, daily transfers on the chain remain close to $10 billion, almost perfectly aligned with the 365-day average. This clearly shows that transaction demand remains slimy.
The sudden increase in on-chain throughput has been marked as the previous bull phase, but the current scenario reflects minimal fresh transaction activity, effectively capping potential momentum.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s Mempool (a major indicator of transaction backlog and network demand) is shallow, with only pending transactions worth about 3-4 blocks being maintained. This is in stark contrast to the historic breakout period, where members have expanded significantly amid increasing trading urgency.
Active address metrics confirm the lethargy seen in volumes and transaction counts on the chain. Over the past 30 days, daily active addresses averaged around 930,000, with recent fluctuations marking months’ lows below 800,000, indicating deviations from activities normally associated with bullish enthusiasm.
Without an increase in new or returned user interactions, Bitcoin is increasingly dependent on existing owners to drive the market upwards. This dependency often leads to weaker purchasing pressure, especially at a significant level of resistance, where profit gains from older owners may be dominated.
Bitcoin’s speed, which indicates the speed at which coins change hands, appears to exacerbate these pressures. Data from encryption remains stagnant at around 13.0, indicating that coins are moving more slowly through the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Furthermore, the background of investor sentiment offers limited comfort. Recently, around 400,000 BTC has moved to long-term holder (LTH) status over the past month, suggesting a tighter supply, but this shift is double-edged. Historically, the significant moves to LTH status are consistent with the stage of market inertia rather than explosive growth, as investors strengthen their side-to-side movement.
Additionally, the $93,500 Bitcoin Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base almost completely reflects current spot prices, adding more technical and psychological weight. This price adjustment amplifies the risk of creating a low technical scenario on your weekly chart, especially if BID support is not critically realized in the coming weeks.
Exchange inflow data provides an additional warning signal of approximately 32,700 BTC daily average last month. These numbers do not represent panic sales or aggressive accumulation. It reflects a neutral and indifferent market.
This intermediary sentiment is most likely that around 15% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently exists in unrealized losses and will not provide enough fuel to drive past resistance clusters of nearly $100,000 ready to offload at destructive points.
Previous episodes of muted activity usually lead to market frustration and reach the culmination of abrupt negative side corrections or price attitudes.
Bitcoin could escape this inertia when dealing with transfer volumes, ETF turnover and active tandem spikes. An increase in speed and depth of mempur, followed by an increase in the derivatives market movement, will certainly strengthen confidence.
The derivatives themselves have shown volatile speculative enthusiasm, seeing sharp spikes and reduced activity over the past month, but have not been enough to make BTC more than $95,000. But without all these signals coming together, it’s more likely that Bitcoin will succumb to the lower tier of the weekly charts, pushing it back to something as low as $86,000.
The current state of transactional inertia serves as a barrier to the possibility of immediate rise in Bitcoin. Unless important on-chain activities resume, the market’s desire to maintain Bitcoin prices above $100,000 can remain out of reach in the short term.
Quiet memory and flat volume could mean that there is limited fuel for Bitcoin breakouts to exceed $10,000.