It appears that a global, massive economic crisis is on the verge of sight. It doesn’t take long to arrive. This time, the experience from 2008 and the Great Fear Presion from 1930 may be small before everything approaching. Essentially, according to some experts, the alarm is on. With dark times approaching, it’s time to cover it.
Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg has published an analysis showing that every road points to a deep crisis around the corner. He admits that he rarely knows the exact date of the collapse, but he believes the current economy embodies the Titanic faction. The ship has already hit an iceberg and its gallery is beginning to fascinate.
According to the Zeberg Economic Cycle model, the current state of the economy is surprising. This is because it indicates a decline in key indicators (such as yield curves and housing situations) and accidental indicators (such as employment, industrial production, income, etc.).
As can be seen in the following graph, the main indicator (red line on top panel) fell below its important baseline. And the matching indicator (red line on the bottom panel) follows that procedure It may also be below the limit.
This is illustrated by a specialist:
“Think of it as a Titanic. When the main index crashes through a certain threshold, it’s when the ship collides with an iceberg. The damage has already been done. A recession is inevitable. It is confirmed that a accidental sinking (recession) is then below baseline.”
Henrik Zeberg, Economicista.
For Zeberg, the above indicates that “we are clearly at the final stage of the cycle.” The recession is more than imminent. He says this is clear as the model accurately predicts a recession for 80 years.
“And now he’s screaming that the recession is coming,” he said. “The matching indicators haven’t collapsed yet, but we’re looking back. We’re essentially drinking water. So the Titanic has sunk and the damage is irreversible,” he said.
He explained that all classic indicators of the imminent recession exist. For example, the main economic indexes of board meetings are constantly declining, and the performance curve is deeply invested for several months.
“This is exactly what we saw before 2008. (…) We collided with the iceberg. We’ve mostly been insured during the 2025-26 recession,” he insisted.
Fear of a global economic recession is rarely on the forefront. Alerts have already been peeked out for months by various referents, including bestselling author Robert Kiyosaki Rich father, poor fatheras reported by Crypto, in January, warned of a “giant global crisis.”
FRB Error
Zeberg emphasized that in the current situation the US Federal Reserve is committing a series of errors. This is essentially Ignore messages sent by consumers.
According to economists, the Fed’s vision is wrong. Because they think the economy is good because the labour market is demonstrated under unemployment. For him, the US Central Bank Consumers are “deteriorating rapidly.”
The specialists note that consumer confidence surveys collapsed at a level commonly seen during the recession. Although we are not officially available.
The following graph shows that. The unemployment rate (red line) is close to its historic maximum, and consumer confidence (blue) has recently sunk at its weakest level in over a decade.
“This type of emotional breakdown is not a precedent in modern times without the current recession,” says Zeberg, who emphasizes that 70% of the US gross domestic product has been severely damaged by increased inflation and increased debt over the past two years.
In that sense, he criticizes the Fed for focusing on accidental indicators such as unemployment rates. While abandoning clear signs of consumer relief.
“This has emerged as one of the Fed’s biggest policy errors. It’s surprising that we can’t see the devastation that hits US consumers. They’ve “forget” the economy of the economy.
He then warned that if the Fed ignores these warnings and maintains restrictive policies, it will “take the risk of pushing the economy to the cliff.” “They’re very obsessed with the fight against inflation yesterday, and today’s recession is shaping up in front of their noses,” Zeberg said.
That’s what you need to be careful about Consumer trust increased last monthImproved inflation expectations, according to the latest report from the University of Michigan. The June index rose 8.5 points from 52.2 in May to 60.7 in June. According to Joanne HSU, director of the study, “improvement was widespread in many aspects of the economy.”
Real Estate Market Issues Alerts
Another indicator that will send warning signals due to the imminent financial crisis is the real estate market. Historically, this sector has been one of the most sensitive sectors to monetary policy. For example, in 2000 This market has begun to crack, Long before the global crisis of 2008.
This was demonstrated by a decline in home builders’ trust, a decline in sales of new homes and an increase in mortgage delinquency. Now, Zeberg says, “We see some creepy similar patterns.”
Following the housing market index, collapse is evidenced from the maximum reached by the Covid-19 pandemic. Currently, in June 2025, the indicator has registered 32 points. This is the third lowest read since 2012, and the worst register, measured in April 2020 and December 2022.
It adds that builders are offering incentives to lower prices and attract buyers. Because the mortgage rate is high, it is affordable.
This index was 80 points in the second half of 2021. The 30-point decline represents a brutal shift in euphoria to pessimism among builders. Such a prominent decline has always been in line with the upcoming economic issues, says Zeberg. The unemployment rate rose a year later.
As can be seen in the graph below, the House Builders Index (Blue Line) collapsed from the greatest. Unemployment (Orange Line) is minimal.
Now, the story shows that if the blue line falls, an increase in orange is expected after at least a year.
Zeberg portrays it clearly: Now, the housing market panorama It’s as depressing as the end of 2007as home construction permits and beginnings have decreased, and home sales have weakened. “A classic pioneer of all the recessions.”
Although we don’t believe that the real estate crisis will lead to the collapse of risky mortgages (as in 2008), we can see that the impact on growth is similar. You can see that there is a decrease in work during construction, a decrease in demand for materials, and a lower cost of furniture.
“It’s a negative domino effect. The Titanic is cut into a helmet, and the water will be flooded for the first time in the home,” he warned.
What Zeberg points out about the real estate crisis is consistent with real estate realist analysis. Alan Longbon explained that the real estate cycle is about to end. This is because monetary policy flexibility, housing construction stocks are rebounding with significant records, maximum home prices.
Hidden labor market cracks
It is often said to be evidence that the economy is doing well, with low unemployment rates, constant increase in monthly employment. And certainly the labor market As for other indicators, I’ve been solid and solid for a long time.
However, according to economist Zeberg, vulnerability appears beneath the surface. This is the number of people who continue to receive government benefits as their unemployment claims are maintained.
In the diagram, ongoing demand at the lowest point of the cycle has recently increased to around 1.2 million people. This is a 60% increase in the unemployed list from the lowest. Historically, This rebound occurred during the period before the recession.
The following graph shows that each recession (shading) has an ongoing increase in unemployment applications (blue lines). This comes with it as layoffs and unemployed workers increase to find new jobs.
In particular, there were cases where applications increased around 1995, but there was no recession. “The current increase in claims is already greater and more sustained than that conflict in the mid-’90s. Americans are beginning to have more difficulty returning to work,” analysts say. Analysts believe the impulse of applications to increase (captured by a purple relative power indicator) has reached a level that indicates that the economy is recovering.
In addition to unemployment applications, Job Offering also provides alert visuals. These have significantly dropped in 2022 with over 11 million seats and now more than 7 million seats. this Later, there will be an increase in layoffs in sectors such as technology and finance.in addition to cooling salary growth. These are factors that commonly occur when the labor market begins to loosen up, says Zeberg.
“So don’t be fooled by the unemployment of the holder,” says the economist. Economists are urging people to look at job metrics such as ongoing demands, employment offers and resignation rates.
“The labor market foundation is eroded, but the façade appears to be intact. When the dam breaks, it breaks suddenly. After the recession is recognized, massive layoffs occur. In short, the labor market is not as “bulletproof” as it looks.
It should be noted that in April, US workers will show strength and open 7.4 million vacant seats. this, Even in the midst of economic uncertainty The trade war of US President Donald Trump has increased, causing fires in various sectors.
Stock Market: “All Bubbles”
Another sector that issues alerts is, although less clear, the stock market. This is because major stock market indexes such as the S&P 500 have reached historic maximums. It shows a clear disconnection of the broader macroeconomic environment.
As Zeberg sees, it is the “unique seal” of the late bubble. Stratospheric prices that do not correspond to economic reality And it is driven by liquidity and speculation. Thus, he suggests that we live as “one of the biggest asset bubbles in history, perhaps larger than 1929 or 2000.”
This is evidenced by knowing, for example, that the total capital in the stock market equals 200% of US GDP. It also confirmed that the price range ratio for the S&P 500 index has returned to 30 points in 1929 and 2000. It can also be seen as periodically adjusted with price-selling metrics to be seen as being at or near the historic maximum.
All of the above suggests the current market Overestimated than previous peaks. That’s what Berkshire Hathaway, the company of billionaire Warren Buffett, was “sold quietly,” Zeberg said.
“In fact, Buffett has been cancelled over the past year tens of thousands of shares, including a portion of Apple, accumulating cash reserves of over $300,000 million, historic maximums,” he recalls, “Buffett is paying attention while the crowd abandons it.
How did you do this point? According to the Economist, the Economist can be seen in the following graph, recalls that the S&P 500 had meteor rise in relation to money supply since 2009.
Since that year, the United States Over $8 billion printedand other central banks added billions more. Much of that liquidity can be brought about in stocks, bonds, real estate, and even cryptocurrencies, creating misconceptions of wealth, which can lead to financial disasters.
Zeberg offers two ways to disable all bubbles. At first, it intentionally collapses the market. The second one continues to expand Until the risk of coin collapse is carried out.
“The central bank chose the last method after 2008. An endless stimulus package to support the market. The result is a bubble of everything we see right now. But gravity cannot be challenged forever.
However, he does not expect the Fed to stay in the crossed arms and a total currency collapse will occur. Rather think about it Operate to stabilize the marketit is probably “a violent readjustment of asset prices, a collapse of deflation to purge excesses.”
“The fact that the S&P 500 has caused over 750% since 2009 and far outweighed GDP growth or profits is a warning in itself. They have come to support only the expectations of new price profits, not fundamental yields.
Henrik Zeberg, Economicista.
In fact, the S&P 500 index shows a parabolic rise. On Friday, June 27th, stock market indicators showed new historic maximums. Overcoming $6,170as shown in the graph below.
The increase occurs in mild geopolitical situations, despite the possibility of inflation data. They were slightly worse than expected in the market.
Mercade vs. Economy: Dangerous Emissions
The current situation is attracting attention Lack of synchronization between financial markets and the real economy. This shows that employment offers in the US (blue) are at the lowest level since 2021, indicating a cooling of labor demand. At the same time, the S&P 500 (red) index is 20% higher than that year, as shown below.
In normal terms, if a company publishes fewer jobs (because it is less growth or hires a freeze), Stock markets will predict a slowdown in the economy And it will be cool. But that doesn’t happen this time. Despite everything, behavior is rising.
Another example is the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Economic Activity Index, which adds employment, income and production at the state level. This indicator is It’s been stagnant since last year And it has fallen recently, suggesting that economic impulses remain, as seen in this graph.
But even so, the S&P 500 shot his historic maximum. And this is merely a memory of what I lived in between 1999 and 2000. When action price shows similar behavior And, of course, a similar outcome: a violent return to economic reality.
The above is verifiable as the Transport Index does not confirm the genuine rise of the S&P 500. This is because while the Industrial Dow and S&P 500 touch Maxim, they are far from the considerable maximum maximum below, while touching Dow Jones Transport Avage, which is responsible for tracking maritime transport, railroads, air loading, and more.
In fact, there is an extreme divergence that you can’t see in 25 years. And this is important. Because if the economy is really booming, companies that move their goods (trucks, trains, etc.) They should also thrive.
“His fall tells us something is wrong. Historically, these differences often precede a market recession, as happened in 1999 and 2007. It is an ominous sign that the strength of the stock market is on unstable terrain,” warned Zeberg.
Cryptocurrency: Excessive speculation
Another alert signal for the imminent financial crisis is excessive speculation in the cryptocurrency sector. For Zeberg, the market was “a speculation madness” between 2021 and 2024.
So, as with the market valuation Dogecoin (Doge), I recall the rise in Meme Cryptocurrencies, which was photographed at the millions of levels of market capitalization. He was over USD 880 millionmore than companies like FedEx and Dell.
Seeberg said it claims $140 million is hidden in unused cryptocurrency. Memecoin is a financial bubble at risk of exploitation.
According to him, it is “reminiscence of high-risk, secured debt enthusiasts in 2006: many complex and opaque values negotiated with high values that barely understand true risk.”
At the time, toxic assets were high-risk mortgages, analysts say. Today, many cryptographic tokens can be argued as toxic assets of this cycle.
The difference is when a risky mortgage explodes. They hit directly into the banking system. And when cryptocurrency explodes, “there are less systematic connections, but they don’t exist.”
“We have already seen how cryptocurrency-related explosions can cause actual damage. The main lenders of cryptocurrency and coverage funds arrested in 2022, as well as some banks (such as Silvergates and signatures) have been partially broken due to tanks associated with cryptocurrency,” he recalled.
Zeberg said the cryptocurrency market will not fight “adjusting the next account.” In fact, consider that If fluidity is lost, it could collapse further of the market.
“Many of these meme coins will be zero, as was the case with 90% of Puntocom’s actions in 2000. The broader meaning is psychological and indirect. Crypto-enquiries exemplified the speculative heat of this era.
It’s not the first time that the end of a meme cryptocurrency has been predicted. Financial expert Jason Hamlin recently said the assets are “clowns” and “around dying” as reported by Cryptonotics. Similarly, Nick Carter, an investor and Bitconnor, said:
However, now, The MemeCoins market is still operational. As shown below, it is a sector with a market capitalization of USD 5.12 billion, with the new tokens being broadcast on Mainichi, and also supported by large brands in the niche, such as the most important exchanges that list Memocoin (Binance, Bitet, Coinbase, etc.).
Bitcoin, corporate risk?
I just talk Bitcoin (BTC)Zeberg, the largest digital currency on the market, has come close to saying that, although widely accepted. It is – in his opinion, the asset “very unstable and risk of corporate balances.”
Experts recall that Bitcoin has already invaded a critical level within the economic front, and large companies such as Strategy (previously Micro Strategy) have accumulated a huge amount of this digital currency. It also emphasizes that The whole country, As El Salvador, they gave this property a legal course And they created their own BTC treasure.
Similarly, countless coverage funds, pensions and investments have already submerged Bitcoin, and the idea is BTC is digital gold and inflation coverage.
Still, he claims that Bitcoin is a very unstable speculative asset, collapsed to around 80% several times over the past decade. He says he regularly criticizes BTC as “not providing cash flow, not essential performance.”
Zeberg’s comments reflect a widely shared vision among traditional economists, but also generates debate. It is true that Bitcoin does not offer cash flow or essential performance in a classic sense, but its value proposition It is based on scheduled rarity, resistance to censorship, and its growing global adoption.
The fact that Bitcoin issuance is limited to 21 million currencies and the growing demand has contributed to both institutions and retailers historically a major valuation of its prices. Since its creation, BTC has increased Over 170,000,000%and its market capitalization exceeds US$2 billion, surpassing large global companies such as Google, Meta, Tesla and Visa, as shown below.
Zeberg, who now maintains his idea, reflects the possibility that Bitcoin will collapse at 80% in this cycle and the next financial crisis. He believes that strategy will see his asset base disappear. “It could either make it bankrupt or force it to be depreciated on a large scale. Actions could collapse and creditors could face losses,” he said.
“Can it cause a domino effect? For example, if a key lender from a strategy has to cut assets, it can test their capital. I don’t know the interconnections completely, but I know that BTC losses have a way of appearing in unexpected places (and I know there are high-risk losses that destroyed certain funds in the Monetary market in 2008.
Economists suggest that Bitcoin has been treated as a risky asset recently (it tends to rise and fall along with speculative appetite), and as it happened in March 2020, it is likely to collapse in the context of the financial crisis along with lawsuits (though it recovered rapidly on that occasion).
“The order this time is that it’s much more traditional and more entangled with traditional finances than before,” says the economist. Economists remember that there are financial products such as Bitcoin ETFs “more related to traditional markets.”
He says BTC can have a long-term role, but warns that this sharp drop in assets could “act as a catalyst or amplifier for the wider market.”
Zeberg also reflects that if Bitcoin falls 80%, it will become the company that launched a crisis in the crypto sector. He believes it will be a strategy Because it essentially “leverages the Bitcoin holding company that passes through software companies.”
“If such famous names begin to crumble, it can have a serious impact on the market sense. In summary, the widespread adoption of BTC in large wallets is a new vulnerability.
Zeberg’s premise on strategy has already been debated previously given that the sales movements the company has implemented can unleash panic in the market, cause chain effects and then fall to BTC prices. This is because if the largest institutional Hodler sells Bitcoin, the story of long-term accumulation is complete.
Technical Data Sound Siren
Another alert element is technical data. At the edge of a key inflection in the market.
In the case of the stock market, the S&P 500 touched on historic maximum this year, but as you can see in the following graph, the convergence/divergence of the mobile average (MACD) and relative force index is minimal.
This shows the tendency to push weakening of Momentum Stock market index. “Even if prices go up,” says the economist. He recalls that the last time a negative divergence of this magnitude was in 2007 (and before 1999-2000) in the monthly time frame..
“In addition, market progress has declined, rebounds are guided by the technical actions of a small number of large resources, while many others have been lagging behind.
From Elliott’s wave perspective, everything shows that we are completing the final upward wave. Projection of 6,800 points for a maximum S&P 500.
“We haven’t reached that point yet, but we’re very close,” says Zeberg, who thinks there’s a good chance of an increase. “
Similar ones can be found on the following Bitcoin Technology Chart: Experts have shown that weekly and monthly metrics provide warning signs as relative forces continue to decline. This suggests future revisions to the currency prices.
“We’ve already seen this film before. At the end of 2017, the price of BTC reached nearly $20,000, but the RSI diverged and followed a brutal bear market. Again in 2021, Bitcoin reached $69,000 with a big branch, and its price fell quickly.
Zeberg could potentially touch Bitcoin’s maximum of 150,000 USD in this same cycle. A “deep career” that drives upward investors.
“But the engineers suggest that it is unsustainable and ready to turn around. Extreme greed always appears near the peak. We are already seeing signs of it again in cryptocurrency.
Henrik Zeberg, Economicista.
Zeberg’s forecasts are consistent with the latest analysis from GlassNode companies. This shows that BTC prices are being compressed and speculative enthusiasm has lost strength. In fact, the company claims that Bitcoin will reach its new maximum. A new interest will be needed among speculatorsas reported by Cryptootics.
What will burst in the bubble?
One question arises in the middle of the approaching stage is knowing what the bubble will burst and lead to a financial crisis. I remember cases like Lehman Brothers in 2008, It unleashed that fateful experience.
But for Zeberg, “the recession itself causes such a trigger, not the other way around.” This means that as the economy enters contraction, weaknesses begin to appear, something “explodes” and unleashes the crisis.
“In 2007, the stock market reached its biggest point before defeating the big banks in October. The recession officially began in December 2007. It collapsed until March 2008 when Lehman went in September 2008.
That’s the reason, Don’t expect a certain black swan to explode a bomb. Though it raises a positive scenario for a new financial crisis to begin. Initially, they began to beat banks and financial institutions and moved the foundation as in 2008.
Another scenario is a scenario for corporate debt and a “zombie” company. This is remembered by the long-standing losses in interest rates that created a barely surviving time-lapse company. This is a tool for recession, and there could be a wave of corporate defaults, especially in sectors such as commercial real estate and highly utilized technology and media companies. “A large unpaid or a series of defaults can scare the credit market and cause waterfalls,” he said.
Sovereign debt and financial crisis can cause bubbles to explode, remembering it outside of the US. Zeberg believes it is the default for sovereigns You can “send shock waves” through banks and global markets.
“Even the US itself is not a long-term immunity, but the US debt crisis will be revealed as a dollar crisis (inflation), rather than an absolute non-payment,” he said.
Geopolitical clashes such as war are another auspicious scenario for destroying the bubble, and the financial crisis is unleashed. Economists believe that important escalations, including superpowers, can “suggest risks of risk aversion.”
“Geopolitical events can certainly amplify large sales in the market or become a convenient ‘guilt’ because it’s a truly cyclical recession,” he said.
And finally, he believes that “something in the cryptocurrency sector” could be the incentive needed to unleash the financial crisis. I’ll consider that BTC collapse And, influenced by important companies, “It could lead to increased panic” in the market.
Although there are all these possible scenarios, Zeberg believes it is essential to understand that no singular catalyst is needed to allow the crisis to be unleashed. “Sometimes, autumn can occur just because sellers overwhelm the buyers as they change their minds. It can start quietly. It feeds itself, margin calls, and liquid airbags,” he said.
“When the newspapers assign a cause to an accident, it’s already ongoing. The weak system creates a black swan, and the system is very weak due to excessive debt, overvaluation and policy errors,” he added.
Deflation or stagflation, what comes first?
Once the bubble explodes and the financial crisis arrives, another paradigm could begin due to global economic scenarios. As Economist Zeberg sees it, Deflation shock occurs after the market drops And there is a possible global recession.
“The prices of assets collapse, the credits paralyze, and demand collapses like in the end of 2008 or the early 1930s,” he said. As this is a scenario dominated by deflationary forces, central banks “respond to the weapons they left: zero rate reduction (or negative), more quantitative flexibility, liquidity programs, government fiscal stimulus packages.” “Basically, they’re going to try and fill the Titanic,” he said.
But he thinks it could be different this time. You can create a scenario of a stupid regime. This reminds us that after the supply shock over the Covid-19 pandemic, the Fed and other central banks “crazy printed money and tax authorities sprayed money on consumers.”
“of course?
The performance of the US Treasury is shown as shown in the following graph. The yield has changed from 15% to 1%. It was a time when banks used mass expansion without generating inflation. The excess liquidity at that moment has largely inflated assets, not wages or commodities.
However, in 2020 there was a change of government. Yields rose, reaching 40-year inflation in 2022. As economists see, “It appears that there is a new era of secular inflation above us.”
He believes that a severe recession is likely to lower yields, so he is looking forward to it first. A wave of deflation when a crisis occurs. At the time, he says that perhaps 10-year yields had returned to 1-2% at the depths of the crisis.
“But there’s a sequel coming,” the expert warned. Experts believe that the Fed and government are almost certain to be exaggerated by stimuli because “it’s everything they know.”
However, this currently causes general inflation due to many restrictions on the supply side (dating, lack of investment in basic products, etc.), and the government is already in a huge deficit (already injecting money directly into spending).
So take that into consideration If the Fed floods billions into the system again to “save” the market, However, offers cannot respond (closed factories, broken supply chains, labor reductions, etc.), The result could be stunflationthat is, price increases are stagnating.
According to analysts, this was a cycle similar to the 1970s, in repeated attempts to stimulate an economy facing rapid inflation responses. The power to strengthen politics, the growth of drowning.
“It can be a very unstable period. It’s an outbreak of deflation, and then an inflation boom (but actually weak growth), and perhaps another collapse, rather than a relatively stable decade of 2010,” he said. “The 2020s aren’t a repetition of 2010’s tranquility. We’ve entered a new macro regime,” he said.
That’s the final warning
You can throw cards. If this economist paper is successful, we are in rare moments in history that have a serious impact on people who don’t know how to read signals. In 2008 there were people who were being watched and protected. And more than that, they flourished.
The same thing happens this time too. Economists take history into consideration Lima rather than repeating it. Financial history and its crisis cyclemark a transparent compass that is repeated (and worsens) immediately.
