Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark this week and rose to its peak of $104,000 on May 8th, with a chart tracking the global M2 money supply resurfaced on social media.
The correlation between Bitcoin breakout and a resurgent rise on the M2 liquidity curve gained updated traction across trading forums and analyst desks, examining the mechanism of this market integrity.
Julien Bittel, head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, commented that the M2 vs Bitcoin chart “still tells the same story: we’re getting higher.”
Encryption The analysis highlighted that in some respects the correlations are actually elastic in some respects, and more particularly, they are more consistent with the global fluidity cycle.
The chart in question has been widely distributed since April, overlaying Bitcoin prices with the Global M2 Liquidity Index, which has shifted over three months.
M2, a measure of global money supply growth, began a new rise in February. That rise is now happening in the market, with Bitcoin’s price trajectory tracking the M2 curve that was almost delayed until that day.
Encryption Check the inference by Bitcoin and its correlation with 90 days of delayed global M2.
Traders continue to debate the predictive power of liquidity metrics, but breakout timing is difficult to ignore.
Bitcoin price factors other than M2
Over the past 10 weeks, Bitcoin has recovered from its $80,000 consolidation phase to regain the six-person figures driven in part by a consistent inflow into the digital asset fund.
Over the past three weeks, billions have flowed into Crypto Investment Products, with $1.8 billion directed by the Bitcoin ETF. On May 7th, BlackRock’s IBIT led a daily net inflow of $422 million. BlackRock’s IBIT is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with approximately $58 billion in managed assets.
The rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the delayed M2 major provides a more complex image. The 180-day Pearson correlation between the two was on average 0.65 since early 2024, while the 30-day measurements vibrate between -0.9 and +0.95. This variance warns against a deeper reading of short-term overlap.
Still, the latest timing of chart convergence has renewed interest in macro-driven cryptographic evaluation frameworks. The global M2 liquidity index, built from the weighted average of central bank money supply indicators, is a proxy for dollar liquidity available in the financial system.
Adjusted to a 90-day delay, we may foresee a turning point in Bitcoin prices across multiple windows. This idea became prominent during the Bull Cycle in 2021, and has since re-emerged as an interpretive lens, particularly as BTC is separate from Tech Equities.
Beyond ETF flow and flowability overlays, a wider macro environment adds weight to the paper. The US dollar index has slipped nearly 4% since late February, and trade-driven capital turnover has contributed to the demand for decentralized alternatives. The M2 metric does not take into account Stablecoin issuance or unbalanced sheet credits, but it remains a reference point for modeling the fluidity pressures across the system.
Bitcoin’s current position at nearly $103,000 is consistent with the broader risk-on positioning wave across digital assets, but whether the M2 model affects forward price discovery depends on the sustainability of liquidity. If central bank data continues to reflect the climbing M2 curve, attention may shift to how much of its liquidity can enter the crypto via the institutional channel.
If Bitcoin correlation with M2 supply fails
The 90-day lag chart remains a visually compelling narrative tool, but its usefulness as a trading signal is limited by noise and external catalysts. When prices rise, the model may act as an emotional anchor than deterministic predictions.
For now, Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000 for the second time in 2025, reaffirming its ability to track and reflect the global liquidity cycle, even if the mechanisms behind that correlation remain in fluidity.
Interestingly, since its launch in 2025, the global M2 money supply has increased by 3.25%. However, the 90-day delay chart actually fell 0.16% over the same period, with Bitcoin rising by around 8%. Therefore, Bitcoin will go down that year to accurately track global delayed M2.
Changing the analysis window to the last 12 months means Bitcoin will increase by 75%, Global M2 will increase by 3.8%, and delayed M2 will increase by 7.37%. In other words, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed M2 during this period.
Therefore, as mentioned in our previous analysis, the correlation between Bitcoin and the late global M2 money supply is a very strong metric, unless otherwise.
But it’s definitely fun to watch.
