Bitcoin (BTC) is riding a wave of euphoria, with prices approaching $119,000, but the technical shadows looming on the horizon. The MVRV indicator flashes as a warning signal, indicating that the upward cycle is about to exhale the final breath.
Next September 10th will be appearing as a calendar lighthouseanalyses shared by on-chain data providers show that Cryptoquant, created by a trader known as Yonsei_Dent, can mark the zenith of BTC Bull Market.
The MVRV indicator is a market thermometer that compares the current value of Bitcoin with the price obtained by the coin. Its 365-day mobile average (365 DMA) has historically portrayed the peak of a bullish cycle.
The following graph shows the price of Bitcoin, with the bottom showing the MVRV (orange) indicator and its mobile socks (30 DMA in red and 365 DMA in blue). Historically, as seen in 2021, MVRV and its 365 DMA reached a double peak pattern (marked by a red vertical line) just before the market fell. Now, in 2025, the graph shows that MVRV and its 365 DMA approach a new peak on September 10th, replicating a similar scenario to the previous market roof. This convergence suggests possible overestimation and impending purpose for an upward cycle..
In 2021, the indicator drew double beak patterns such as camel bumps just before the market collapsed in a bear winter. The second peak was the final forewarned. Today, in 2025, the analyst screen shows a disturbing echo of that pattern, with a new maximum projected on September 10th.
Macroeconomic winds stir the water
However, the market does not work in bubbles. The outside world adds its own story while investors scrutinise the graph. On July 30, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), an event that could skew the balance.
in Fixed at 4.50%, no visual reductionand the Fed should relax monetary policy after pressure from President Donald Trump.
“This moment coincides with the broader narrative of the market, including expectations of reducing macroeconomic senses and expectations of reducing change,” says Yensei_dent.
A peak that lurks faster than expected
But the MVRV 365 DMA is not an indefinite prophet. It is a late indicator, a narrator who tells the story after the facts.
This means that The real peak of Bitcoin could probably arrive at the end of August. He warned analysts that “optimism and attention must coexist,” urging investors to adjust their risk strategies.
Analysts’ voices are a reminder that happiness can become a trap, indicating that this is the time to improve risk management and move along with tightrope agility.
The perspective of the Bitcoin uprising continues
Despite the warning, Bitcoin forecasts for 2025 are still optimistic. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor predicts the price of $180,000, with Bernstein analysts increasing their bet to $200,000.
Iván Paz Chain, CEO of Training Different, has established a minimum of $140,000. These numbers reflect long-term confidence, but in the short term, they need monitoring as reported by encryption.
With MVRV as a guide, Yensei_Dent emphasizes the importance of adapting to on-chain signals. “Try your strategy to a momentum-on-chain,” he recommends. As Bitcoin approaches the possibility of turning, investors face clear challenges. A balance of prudence and enthusiasm in a market that does not allow mistakes.
Clarification: This article is written as a useful method. This does not represent investment recommendations or financial councils. Each investor is responsible for conducting his own research.