Economic data, which is expected to be released in the US, has finally been shared.
- Average hourly profit: +0.4% (expected: +0.3%)
- Non-farm payroll: +139k (expected: +130k)
- Increase in annual salary: +3.9% (expected: +3.7%)
- Unemployment rate: 4.2% (expected: 4.2%)
- Private sector employment: +140k (expected: +120k)
- Manufacturing Employment: -8K (Expected: -5K)
- Average working hours: 34.3 hours
- Participation in the workforce: 62.4% (estimated: 62.6%)
According to LSEG data, job growth expectations ranged from 75,000 to 190,000.
A Reuters poll found market expectations were 130,000, down significantly from the 177,000 figure released in April. The unemployment rate was expected to remain stable at 4.2%.
Bank of America (BOFA) was expecting an increase of over 150,000, surpassing expectations that it expects labor market resilience. Banks say this could encourage the Fed to stabilize interest rates for a long period of time. BOFA analysts say the market is more focused on “the recession side of Stagflation.”
Meanwhile, UBS chief economist Pauldnovan said many forecasts are below market expectations. “Companies may be delaying employment due to uncertainty around trade policy. However, this is unlikely to lead to an increase in layoffs. This means there is limited rate cuts at the moment. However, rate cuts will become more important as consumer demand weakens,” Donovan said.
*This is not investment advice.