According to a Yadeni survey, the Fed is expected to remain stable at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30th.
Research data shows that the probability of a rate reduction remains at just 4.7%. Strong employment data released in June delayed expectations for short-term cuts, but a medium-sized inflation report in September is expected to bolster potential rate cuts signals.
The market is growing with better revenue figures than expected announced in the second quarter, but it is said that new momentum could emerge in the stock market if the Fed provides a dovish message next week.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is allegedly putting pressure on lower interest rates from the White House, but market experts and economists do not expect stubborn moves from the central bank in the short term.
One of the most important reasons for this is that Powell cannot make a solo decision about the FOMC, which sets monetary policy. He is just one of the 12 board members. Furthermore, the Fed has a double mission. It’s about keeping inflation in control while ensuring maximum employment. The current strong labor market does not create an environment that requires interest rate reductions. Additionally, new tariffs that may be in place in future periods could increase inflation.
The Federal Reserve has steadily maintained its federal funding rate target between 4.25% and 4.50% since December. Banks that did not change prices at their June meeting are also based on decisions on inflation stiffness, the impact of trade tariffs, and the need for more data.
*This is not investment advice.
