Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise Digital Asset Management Company, believes 2026 will be a good year for Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency markets. He acknowledges that it may be highly volatile, but argues that the structural factors driving the sector now are stronger than those marking previous cycles.
Some of the premises The 4-year cycle historically marked as Bitcoin action could be behind it. As he explains, the power that defined the pattern is losing its relevance, but new long-term dynamics begin to shape industry courses.
It is worth mentioning that since Bitcoin’s origins in 2009, its prices have maintained a repeating pattern in the Bitcoin market every four years. Prices rise significantly, followed by important falls.
This behavior is related to half of events scheduled every four years, with rewards for damaging blocks reduced by half, and new BTC emissions reduced.
The phenomenon that occurs until the total supply of Bitcoin (21 million units) ends in 2140, due to the supply and demand laws, it makes it easier for prices to rise to purchase.
The following year, half the following year, Bitcoin marked the end of its upward cycle. A few months of code winter has begun. This is a pattern that marks the beginning of a bear market at some point this year.
However, Hougan believes that the half-height pattern is no longer the same weight. His first argument is that bitcoin emissions will be reduced and lowered by absolute.
For example, in 2012 the block reward went from 50 to 25 BTC, and in 2024 it was reduced from 6.25 to 3,125 BTC. This incentive also represents a small portion of the total BTC in the circulation, thus reducing the price impact.
In Bitcoin Network, when miners validate transactions and group them into blocks, the creation of a new currency occurs. As a reward for this work, they receive a newly generated BTC known as the “block reward.”
A more friendly macro state and lower risk of extreme collapse
Hougan also highlights major changes in the macroeconomic environment. In previous cycles, like 2018 and 2022, interest rate increases due to the Federal Reserve had a negative impact on risky assets, including Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, today the context appears to prefer cryptocurrency, thanks to the potential for fee reductions and more favorable scenarios for investment.
Another important difference in the previous cycle is the reduction in the risk of catastrophic collapse within the ecosystem.. According to Hougan, this is due to progressive regulations and increased institutionalization of the market.
Unlike years like 2022, when exchanges and other small, transparent actor bankruptcies were recorded, today there is greater control, more regulated companies and more robust infrastructure.
But he warns of new risks. As a strategy or metaprenet, the increase in weight of companies maintaining a large amount of Bitcoin in balance. This phenomenon is still under development, Hogan thinks he is worthy of attention as it could have an impact on the market.
Perhaps experts refer to the fact that if these companies start selling a large amount of BTC, they can cause significant price fluctuations. Furthermore, this concentration could change the traditional relationship between supply and demand by having a greater impact on firm decisions regarding market behavior.
Beyond the loss of the impact of the four-year cycle, Hougan emphasizes the emergence of larger scale and long-term forces. Among these, Bitcoin ETF was adopted.
From his perspective, this trend began in 2024 with approval of the first cash cited in the US. It will attract a large amount of capital to the sector.
Meanwhile, regulatory advancements represent another important engine. Bitwise’s CIO has emphasized that since January 2025, the US will begin a serious regulatory process for the sector and be extended for several years. This framework not only provides greater legal certainty, it will pave the way for the entry of great financial actors.
In fact, the specialists mention the recent approval of the Genius Act. In his opinion, it allows billions of dollars to infiltrate an investment.
As reported by Cryptonotics, Genius Law received the green light with widespread bipartisan support. This initiative will establish a specific legal framework for regulating stubcoins for the first time. In other words, it is a cryptocurrency designed to maintain a 1:1 parity with the dollar.
This confluence of factors suggests that analysts Bitcoin may not have a crypto winter in 2026 As expected according to your historical patterns.
