Ethereum continues to face strong resistance at $2.7k near a critical 200-day moving average, with recent price action suggesting a bearish reversal.
The lack of sustained purchasing momentum suggests that a long-term integration phase, which extends to a support zone of perhaps $2.2,000, is increasingly likely in the medium term.
Technical Analysis
Daily Charts
The ETH is below the important 200-day moving average currently placed around the $2.7,000 mark. This level has consistently served as a ceiling over the last few weeks, indicating a solid zone of sales pressure and hesitation among buyers. Not regaining this key threshold led to signs of weakness as prices began to form a range of distribution and began to suggest potential corrective movements.
Given the lack of strong bullish momentum, it appears that upcoming sessions will likely gradually decrease for $22,000 in support. This zone serves as a demand pocket and offers the market an opportunity to reset before attempting another breakout that exceeds the $2.7k barrier. However, if the seller gains further control, Ethereum could even retest the 100-day MA to nearly 2K as the next line of defense.
4-hour chart
In the lower time frame, Ethereum trades within an upward wedge formation, usually a bearish reversal pattern, indicating it has waned buyer strength and increased the risk of downward failures. This structure aligns with the visible divergence of the bearishness of the RSI indicator, reinforcing the view that distribution is ongoing near current resistance.
A breakdown below the lower limit of the wedge (currently around $2.4,44,000) could open the door towards the $2.2,000 zone. Conversely, if Ethereum unexpectedly breaks above the cap, a rapid short aperture could be deployed, driving prices to higher levels of resistance with sharp recovery movements.
On-Chain Analysis
Ethereum prices continue to fluctuate just below the key resistance zone, leaving traders uncertain about the movement of the assets’ next important direction. One valuable indicator in this context is the average order size of transactions executed, revealing the size of activity from different market participants.
This surge in indicators often indicates an increase in participation from whale investors. Historically, larger order sizes have coincided with major local tops, as whales tend to engage in strategic profit acquisition or increased price levels.
Now, the metric has climbed prominently, increasing whale activity within the $2.5,000-2.8k resistance band. This pattern suggests that large investors may be offloading positions or hedges, predicting potential changes in momentum.
As a result, with the exception of a surprising bullish breakout, odds are now favoring continuous integration and deeper pullbacks in the mid-term, perhaps towards a lower level of support. Investors should be cautious and look at further clues from both price structure and institutional action.
