Bitcoin will rise to $117,000 if volatility spikes across the market after compression

Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain and derivatives markets reflect compression volatility and supply tightening during registration The newest ever, According to To GlassNode.

A July 10 report showed that accumulation trend scores show stable investors purchases since June, with prices remaining within a narrow band. The report came hours before Bitcoin exploded and price discoveries exceeded $112,000.

At the time of reporting, it was trading at $116,000 after hitting a new all-time high of $117,500.

Long-term holders continue to add balances, with supply growth exceeding minor issuance. This reflects the preference to hold coins until a clear price movement occurs.

Entities below 100 btc have added 19,300 btc per month, exceeding 13,400 btc per month, which absorbs new supply into long-term holdings.

The realized volatility across the windows from one week to six months is close to the lowest recorded levels since December 2022. Since then, only 6% of trading days have reached the 30-day price range, while only 0.4% has shown the 60-day range.

This multi-scale compression indicates a contraction in volatility, and a moderate shift in demand forms a coiled structure that can promote large price movements.

Money at Emmany’s implicit volatility in the options market has declined for all periods with the lowest 1/10 percentile rank since the second half of 2022.

Derivatives and ETF flow

The options market is not a high volatility pricing. This is a condition that historically precedes directional price movements when liquidity is low.

GlassNode’s realized supply density metric shows that 19% of the supply is located within a 10% band at the current price. Small price movements can have a significant impact on the unrealized profitability of most holders, which increases the likelihood of reactive transactions when prices occur.

The US Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) currently hold a record $137 billion of managed assets (AUMs), accounting for 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

Last week, net inflow slowed to $144 million, but stable demand shifted supply to regulated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF currently holds 55% of the total ETF AUM, dominating ETF options, with its cost base closely in line with the broader market positioning model.

The report concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs occur within a large environment with low volatility, tight liquidity and chain accumulation, resulting in volatility quietly built across the market, creating conditions where prices are close to record levels.

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